An extensive storm system that will impact the central and eastern U.S. will develop over the Plains on Wednesday, setting the stage for yet another round of severe weather across the storm-weary South.
This storm will have both a severe and a wintry side as it quickly races eastward, reaching the Northeast by Thursday, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
“The potential here for severe weather stretches from southeast Texas all the way up through the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valley,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said.
Severe thunderstorms will be primarily focused across parts of the South, which is still reeling from an onslaught of two severe weather outbreaks so far this month. Once again, the FOX Forecast Center warned another severe weather outbreak is possible Wednesday, though the number of severe storms that may occur is still a bit uncertain.
This severe weather threat is expected to begin early Wednesday afternoon and continue throughout the afternoon and evening, as an unstable air mass develops from East Texas to southern and eastern Arkansas, northern and central Louisiana, northern and central Mississippi, West Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky.
The combination of a cold front and a dryline – a boundary separating a humid air mass from a much drier, less humid air mass – will sweep eastward across these areas and provide the necessary trigger for severe thunderstorms to develop.
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“By the time we get to the early afternoon, we’re looking at thunderstorms pushing into the state of Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi,” Merwin said. “Timing here is pretty concerning. We’re after sunset at this point.”
By 6 p.m. CST, the FOX Forecast Center said there will be a line of storms stretching from Louisiana into western Mississippi.
“For Mississippi, the timeline is going to be after dinner through the evening hours,” Merwin added. “Anytime that you have thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes, and it’s dark outside, it does up the danger factor.”
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Any storms that develop closer to the cold front or dryline will be more capable of damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, whereas storms that develop out ahead of the front in the so-called “warm sector” are likely to be supercell thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, in addition to damaging winds and large hail.
As the cold front moves eastward through Thursday, there is some indication that severe storms might persist farther east into parts of Alabama and Georgia, but the FOX Forecast Center said confidence in Thursday’s severe weather threat remains low at this time.
“Although we will see rumbles of thunder, most of our computer models are suggesting that that threat of severe weather will diminish,” Merwin said.
In addition to severe storms, there is also the potential for flash flooding on Wednesday.
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This flash flood threat will stretch over a large area, from the Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley, and includes cities such as Cincinnati in Ohio, Louisville in Kentucky, Memphis in Tennessee, Little Rock in Arkansas and Shreveport in Louisiana.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain is predicted to fall in these areas Wednesday, which, when combined with already-saturated soils, could lead to a significant threat of flash flooding.