NEW YORK – Poor New York City, still singing the snowless blues. The city is at 699 days and counting, almost two years since the Big Apple has seen an inch of snow. That streak may finally end this week as snow chances are increasing for this week.
“Last winter was a huge bummer. Despite some of the storms that moved through, it seemed NYC was protected. I don’t think this will happen again this season,” said snow lover Meteorologist Jason Frazer. “I look forward to seeing the snow and introducing my daughter to it.”
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL AN INCH OF RAIN PRODUCE?
Frazer said he can’t wait to get his daughter in her “big ‘ol winter jacket” and introduce her to the winter play of his youth. But, there are also serious implications to the lack of snow.
“We need it especially to avoid some of the challenges we had in New Jersey,” Frazer continued. “We had an above-average amount of wildfires because the ground was dry. We don’t want that to happen again, so we need the snow!”
Philadelphia and Baltimore are also in a snow drought. Most of the Northeast has well under the amount of snow usually seen by this time of year.
SNOWFALL CONSIDERED CRUCIAL FOR LONG-TERM DROUGHT MITIGATION
After so many frustrating storms this winter, the cold is finally in place. But do we have the moisture to ring out an inch? Meteorologist Jane Minar is going on a limb and saying yes, actually, 1.1 inches for New York Monday night into Tuesday. Meteorologist Michael Estime is not a believer, though. Winter Storm Specialist Tom Niziol said it is too close to call.
“In meteorological terms, this is an open wave. It’s moving pretty rapidly, but it’s going to have enough cold air and enough moisture to likely put down measurable snowfall even along the 95 corridor,” said Niziol.
An open wave is a broad area of low pressure moving west to east with no surface storm.
HOW COLD DOES IT HAVE TO BE TO SNOW?
“(It’s) not a big storm. You may see a couple of inches here or there, up in that area,” Niziol continued. “It may break the records for days with less than an inch of snow in Philly and New York. I don’t see major impacts here, but any snowfall that occurs at the right time of day along a megalopolis corridor, like 95, can be impactful.”
Watch the FOX Model and follow the rain, ice and snow lines. Baltimore and Washington, D.C., start as a winter mix before changing over to snow. Philadelphia starts as snow. But all three flirt with an area of icing or rain before the precipitation tapers off.
HOW MUCH ICE IS NEEDED TO KNOCK OUT POWER, DAMAGE TREES?
Boston and New York start as snow, but they also could end up with a mix of ice and rain before the system departs. The stretch from Baltimore to New York City could see 1 to 3 inches of snow.
Much of the I-95 corridor through the Mid-Atlantic could see treacherous driving as a strip of icing passes overhead. Unfortunately, the slippery conditions start on Monday evening just as anyone who traveled for the three-day weekend is headed home. The snow, rain and ice will continue into Tuesday, making that back-to-work day tough travel, too.
“The heaviest snow will likely peak Tuesday morning as the coastal low passes parallels the Northeast Coast,” said the FOX Forecast Center. “Commuters could face challenging conditions as visibility is reduced. The snow will wrap up Tuesday evening in New England as freezing temperatures remain for the rest of the week.”
So far, New York is 7.5 inches in the red for snow this season. Boston is more than 10 inches, Philadelphia is more than 5 inches, while Buffalo, New York, is a foot-and-a-half low on snow for the season.
HOW MUCH SNOW DOES YOUR CITY NORMALLY GET IN A YEAR?
If we can’t get the inch this week, keep an eye on the forecast for next week to break the streaks.
“There are suggestions that we’ll see kind of the same pattern, the same track. Another storm developing out of the Gulf and racing northeastward toward the Atlantic and the East Coast,” Niziol said. “Still a little too far out, that energy’s way out in the Aleutians right now, to detail what’s going to happen there. But keep your guard up as we go into the end of the week in the Mid-Atlantic and in the Northeast for what could be a little more significant winter weather event there.”