A weekend washout is expected in the Southeast, with three straight days of rain starting Saturday, which could benefit drought-stricken states in the region but create some flash flooding problems and put an occasional damper on weekend Mardi Gras festivities.
What had been a week of nice weather across the region reverse course as moist air is pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and interacts with the trailing cold front of the storm that produced Thursday’s tornadoes, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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With ample moisture, showers and thunderstorms will spread from the southern Plains to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Friday as the cold front approaches.
“A lot of this is going to be concentrated – not just closer to the Gulf Coast itself, but in the central and northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera said. “So those of you who have been kind of getting in on the action, but not the heavy action, you will start to see that.”
The rain will become more widespread Saturday as a cold front cuts through the area. Intense rain rates brought on by anomalously high moisture will be common.
“Saturday through Sunday we’re at a level 2 out of 4 (risk for flash flooding), likely to see some flooding all the way over from portions of East Texas clear into northern Louisiana through northern Mississippi … and right up in middle Tennessee and East Tennessee,” Herrera said.
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This may spell trouble for areas with wet soils from central Mississippi to northern Georgia that have seen over 6 inches of rain in the past month. Repeated rounds of rain tracking along and ahead of the cold front could lead to flash flooding, the FOX Forecast Center said.
However, those heading to Mardi Gras festivities on Saturday, while they may get occasionally wet from a few passing showers, it won’t be a washout then.
A more potent system will then work its way through the region from Sunday into Monday, bringing with it repeated downpours, thunderstorms and the potential for flash flooding.
The flash flood threat will again set up in a corridor from Louisiana through Alabama and now into Georgia, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Strong winds aloft and ample wind shear could promote the development of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
“Whenever, you know, we have the early heads up from the Storm Prediction Center, you always kind of take a little more of a pause because they don’t do it all the time,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said.
The greatest chance of those storms looks to be from eastern Texas across southern Louisiana, beginning early over Texas and pushing toward Mississippi by early Monday.
It’s Sunday into Sunday night when Mardi Gras revelers around New Orleans will need to pay more attention to the weather, with widespread thunderstorms likely Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially turning severe overnight Sunday. Rain tapers off there Monday morning and conditions dry out though it will remain relatively chilly through Fat Tuesday.
Elsewhere, conditions will slowly dry out across Texas and Louisiana before the start of the new week, but the slow-moving storm will continue to produce steady rain across much of the Southeast on Monday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Places like Charlotte, North Carolina, and Atlanta are looking at a wet return to work rain during the Monday commute. More severe weather is probable along the northern Gulf Coast on Monday afternoon.
The region will dry out starting Tuesday for a few days before rain likely returns for the third-straight weekend.