As the Atlantic basin hurricane season enters the home stretch, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance emerging off Africa that has been given 50-50 odds of developing into the next cyclone of the season.
The tropical wave is at a low latitude, which helps give the disturbance higher odds of taking advantage of environmental conditions to develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next week.
Tracking a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic during October is not rare, but how quickly the system forms into a cyclone could put the feature in a class of its own.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN TROPICS AS HURRICANE SEASON ENTERS OCTOBER
According to historical data from the National Hurricane Center, most tropical cyclones that develop during the first ten days of October don’t become either a tropical depression or tropical storm until they reach at least 30 degrees longitude.
During the historical period from Oct. 11-20, the farthest east development typically happens is west of 35 degrees longitude.
The FOX Forecast Center said patches of dry air and cooler water temperatures usually grow during the month of October, reducing the chances of development in the eastern Atlantic.
If the newest disturbance earns a name, it will be known as Sean. So far, 18 cyclones have reached at least tropical storm status during 2023, which is above normal.
Regardless of whether the disturbance develops, forecast models are unanimous in showing that it will not be a threat to any landmasses and harmlessly travel through the open water of the Atlantic.
7 WEATHER CHANGES TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
The Atlantic basin sees about one cyclone a year that develops around the Cabo Verde Islands in either the final days of September or October.
In 2022, Tropical Depression 12 developed on Oct. 4 southwest of the African islands but never strengthened into a named storm.
The last-named storm to traverse the eastern Atlantic was Victor in 2021. Victor organized into a tropical storm on Sept. 21 and degenerated by Oct. 5.