Forecasters are tracking a storm system that produced heavy rain and gusty winds over the Golden State but promises to deliver frozen precipitation and heavy rainfall by the time Valentine’s Week is up over the Northeast.
Similar to every storm system that has impacted the region over the past two years, major cities are not expected to see substantial snowfall, but it will likely be a different story for inland communities in both the Northeast and New England.
Before the low-pressure system makes its way to the Northeast, it will bring plenty of rain to the South and Southeast over the weekend.
Areas along the Gulf Coast will see another round of weekend precipitation and storms that could dampen any outdoor Mardis Gras festivities.
Localized flooding will be possible, with the heaviest rainfall expected across northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and into the southern Appalachians.
A widespread 1-3″ of rain is expected before the storm system starts in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
If forecast models are correct, the precipitation could start as early as Monday night and exit the coast as late as Wednesday.
For major cities such as Philadelphia, Baltimore and New York City, precipitation is expected to remain mostly as rain, but there is a chance that some wraparound moisture on the backside of the low could fall in the form of snowflakes before all is said and done.
“I want to point out the I-95 corridor. This is where we’re still locked in with mainly just rain…And when we consider kind of where we’re standing season to date with snow, it’s not a lot,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Kendall Smith.
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The heaviest precipitation seems destined for communities around the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks and White Mountains, where some snowfall amounts will likely approach over a foot.
The FOX Forecast Center said it is too early to depict specifics, but the storm system could be in line with the event that occurred in mid-January, which dropped several inches of snow in the higher elevations.
So far, no watches or warnings have been issued for communities in the Northeast, and you wouldn’t expect them to be hoisted until Friday or even Saturday.
A Winter Storm Watch is typically issued upwards of 48 hours before the start of heavy snow, freezing rain or sleet.
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Significant accretions of ice can lead to major travel problems, cracking trees and downed power lines.
Early indications are that accretions should remain below significant criteria, including the threat of water freezing over bridges and overpasses, which can lead to a broader ice threat.
Forecasters expect an area of high pressure will build in behind the storm system, allowing for more normal temperatures through the end of the Valentine’s Day week and into the following weekend.