If those in the southern Plains and Gulf Coast were dreaming of a wet Christmas holiday, Santa is on track to deliver as soaking rain will cover a wide swath of the region from Sunday into Monday, though in some spots, it may be too much of a good thing as flash flooding remains a risk.
An El Niño-energized southern jet stream will help enhance a storm system as it treks from the southern Plains into the Southeast over the holiday, bringing heavy rain and an accompanying flash flood threat.
“It is certainly going to be a very wet go of things,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime.
While rainy weather extends across much of the region into eastern Texas, the greatest risk for flooding Sunday extends from along the Missouri-Kansas border, through Kansas City, and into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
Rainfall totals here could reach 1.5-2 inches in three hours, with some isolated areas receiving as much as 3 inches in six hours or less. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed this region in a Level 2 out of 4 risk for flash flooding.
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Also in a Level 2 risk zone is a separate area along the Gulf Coast stretching along the shores from New Orleans through Biloxi, Mississippi, and into Mobile, Alabama.
Plenty of moisture and instability combine here for threats of long-lasting thunderstorms that could drop multiple inches of rain again, enhancing the flash flooding risk.
Elsewhere in the region, expect up to an inch or two of rain on Sunday.
The large swath of moderate rain moves east on Monday into the Southeast and parts of the Ohio Valley.
Atmospheric instability wanes a bit, muting the risk for severe weather or flash flooding and instead just leaving the area with a rainy Christmas Day.
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“Not only the Carolinas, but also the Virginias all the way down to Florida getting soaking wet,” Estime said. “And we’re talking about 1 up to 2 inches of rain by the time all is said and done.”
An exception is for those along the southern Appalachians, who may see heavier downpours with perhaps up to 2-3 inches of rain.
The cold front and its batch of rain will eventually sweep through the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and the Northeast on Wednesday, with limited impacts on travel expected.