Severe storms and heavy rain are expected to return to the Plains on Tuesday with a bull’s-eye on Oklahoma and portions of North Texas.
A warm front is lifting north across the region as storms are expected to ignite during the afternoon, the FOX Forecast Center said. Once the front passes, the atmosphere will destabilize, providing the spark needed to get widespread thunderstorms – some possibly turning severe.
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Showers already falling Tuesday morning in western Oklahoma and Kansas will help decide the amount of sunshine available to trigger severe weather later in the day.
“We need that daytime heating. That’s a critical part of this recipe. But we have a couple of rumbles of thunder,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “The bummer is it is kind of like nature’s alarm clock when you don’t want it going off, when you wake up an hour before you need to. That’s the scenario that we have at play.”
If the morning storms become widespread, they may reduce daytime heating and result in a lower risk of severe weather, the FOX Forecast Center said. However, if the storms stay limited to the western areas of the states, a line of storms may form later in the day, around lunchtime.
Coverage and intensity of the storms will gradually increase as the storms march toward the I-35 corridor. The evening commute could be disrupted for millions from Wichita, Kansas to Wichita Falls, Texas. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
“The downside to this hail is it’s going to be flying at you anywhere between 40 mph to upwards of potentially 80 mph,” FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer said. “That means that anything that you have outside, you are going to need to be on alert for.”
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Any severe storms Tuesday carry the potential for some tornadoes as well. It’s a low-end threat of 1 out of 5 on NOAA’s severe weather risk scale, but Oklahoma City is right in the middle of it.
“You’re used to responding to Tornado Warnings, but sometimes the beginning of a season – and this really is the beginning of the fall severe weather season – you kind of get out of practice, and you’re just not used to listening out for that potential,” Merwin said. “So you do need to make sure that you know that today is a severe weather day.”
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Heavy rain will also likely lead to a few instances of flash flooding. Generally, widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain looks likely with some locations getting up to 3 inches.
Central Oklahoma is largely drought-free, but drought conditions are present along the state borders with Kansas and Texas. Any rain farther north closer to Wichita or farther south toward Wichita Falls is greatly needed.
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The storms are just the first salvo in what is shaping up to be a rather stormy week in the Plains, with varying levels of severe weather threats each day into the early part of the weekend.