HOUSTON – Millions of people in the South are on alert for the potential of dangerous flooding and severe weather, including possible tornadoes, as a multiday wet-weather pattern continues to funnel precipitation across the region from Texas to the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast.
The same weather pattern that’s going to deliver above-average temperatures across much of the Lower 48 is now allowing for moisture to build up along the Gulf Coast, which is leading to the increased risk of flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms that could produce deadly lightning, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
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The flash flood risk has shifted farther to the east each day this week and will continue to do so as we progress through the workweek.
South and Central Texas were drenched on Monday, and East Texas became the target for heavy rain and thunderstorms starting on Tuesday.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed areas of East Texas, northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas in a Level 3 out of 4 risk for flash flooding on Tuesday. This includes areas north of Houston into Shreveport in Louisiana and just south of Little Rock in Arkansas.
That higher flood risk will shift to the east on Wednesday and include cities such as Lake Charles in Louisiana, Jackson in Mississippi and around the Birmingham area in Alabama.
The flash flood threat is slightly lower on Thursday but will still be possible in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle and points north into the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast and into East Tennessee.
Flood alerts have been posted across the South from Texas to Tennessee as the waves of moisture push to the east. The Flood Watches encompass areas from East Texas, including Bryan and Lufkin, through most of Louisiana, southern Arkansas, most of Mississippi, northern Alabama and portions of southern Tennessee.
Flood Warnings have also been issued across the region due to runoff that’s raising river levels.
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While the heavy rain and potential for flash flooding will be the talk of the town on Tuesday, there is also the risk of severe weather across the region.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed millions of people from the U.S.–Mexico border in Texas to western Louisiana in a Level 1 out of 5 on its severe thunderstorm risk scale.
This risk includes major cities like Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Austin and Houston in Texas, as well as Alexandria and Lake Charles in Louisiana.
There’s also a risk of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a wide swath of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas approaching 10 inches.
Both Houston and New Orleans are included in the excessive rainfall zone, where totals could reach around a half-foot by the end of the week.
Many of the communities that stand to see rainfall are dealing with a precipitation deficit, so the rainfall could be welcome news.