When the Siege of Avdiivka started, I wrote that, according to what we learned about the similar sieges of Mariupol and Bakhmut, we could expect three things:
First of all – advances will probably be slow.
The second important lesson from past sieges in this war has to do with the coverage by the MSM.
Ukrainians always win – in the MSM headlines.
All the time, it is stressed in their how horribly failing the Russians are, how they don’t have a chance, while papers sing praises for the impenetrable Ukrainian defenses.
Meanwhile, the Russians will be losing the war in the headlines but winning in the ground, until they finally take the city.
The 3rd feature is: when Russians do, a key defensive bastion like Avdiivka will be rebranded as a minor non-strategic place.
But if we dig a bit, it’s easy to find good information.
For example, Ukrainian soldiers now say that they fear losing a ‘war of exhaustion’ [attrition] against Russia ‘as Kyiv struggles to replenish its battle-weary forces’.
Telegraph reported:
“Units on the front lines are commonly 20 to 40 per cent below strength as Ukraine counts the costs of its summer counter-offensive, a retired Ukrainian lieutenant general told [the media].”
It was hoped that the ‘Nato-trained brigades equipped with Western tanks’ would liberate vast amount of territory occupied by Russia as part of the much-hyped counteroffensive.
But in reality, Ukrainian troops ‘battered and bruised’ Russian forces, but the heavily fortified front lines barely moved in months of brutal fighting.
“[Private] Bohdan Lysenko, of Ukraine’s 47th Brigade: ‘We don’t have a chance playing [a] war of exhaustion with Russia. We need a fundamental change in our army’.”
Lysenko’s unit is defending the town of Avdiivka, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, with only 20 men. The company began the summer with 120 men, many of whom are now dead, wounded or have been transferred away from the front line.”
Among the 20 remaining troops, several are replacement soldiers, many more than 40 years old, and even women.
Avdiivka, 16 miles from the Russian city of Donetsk, is now heavily surrounded to the north, east and south.
“Ukraine’s ranks, once made up of highly motivated volunteers, are now being bolstered by briefly trained conscripts. Many of the losses are blamed on Soviet-trained commanders whose rigid tactics have not allowed those forces with Western training to flourish on the battlefield.”
WATCH: Ukrainian soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade in a trench, surrounded by Russian troops. A woman soldier’s helmet cam records the development of events.
But today, Russia made major significant advancements here, as it’s confirmed ‘a major, total overrun of Ukrainian positions in the Vinograd’ and Industrial sectors of southeast Avdiivka.
Analyst and news aggregator Simplicius the Thinker wrote on Substack:
“Some of the exact details are yet to be fully ironed out, like which specific areas are gray zone versus total RF consolidation. However, we have video confirmations of Ukrainian troops retreating up Yasynovsky Lane. This is being hailed as a particular triumph for the troops on the ground because, for the ones who’ve been there since the beginning, the industrial sector was considered one of the most heavily fortified areas that have withstood their assaults for going on a decade.”
WATCH: FPV drone hit a Ukrainian trench.
This is relevant, because since 2014, the industrial zone had been under the fortified control of Ukrainian forces.
“One analyst said that Avdiivka will likely fall the same way as Bakhmut, i.e. not from the full closure of its cauldron but rather step by step, building by building, urban city fighting.
This may strike some as counterintuitive or outright perplexing, and it’s something I’ve treated long ago during the Bakhmut battles. But the fact is that assault troops usually find it much easier to fight in urban environments than the type of wide open fields necessary to ‘close the cauldron’. In those fields, just like in the open steppe between Klescheyevka and Ivanovske near Bakhmut, where Wagner had a lot of trouble and countless deaths, soldiers are extremely susceptible to drone surveillance and coming under various targeted fires.”
WATCH: Russian tanks wreak havoc on Ukrainian positions. At the end, we see a column of Kiev’s troops withdrawing from the last edge of the industrial zone:
In an urban setting you advance behind cover – in a field, you don’t have that luxury.
“So with that said, there’s now reports that Russian forces have in fact begun entering and lodging themselves into the Coke Plant.
[…] Only thing I can say is that it was already nearly a week ago that 100% video confirmation showed Russian troops lodged right at the gate at that northeastern tip. So it is believable that they’ve finally managed to breach into the gates and establish themselves perhaps in the first few buildings in that quarter.”
WATCH: Ukrainian positions obliterated by cluster munitions bombing.
The industrial zone, under the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2014, is only a small part of the territories that still have to be liberated.
Ahead is the liberation of the residential sector of Avdiivka and the battle for coke plant.
What is currently known about the storming of Avdiivka Coke: an analysis of the Military Chronicle Channel.
“The primary challenge is the extensive area. Avdiivka Coke Plant spans 325-340 hectares with over 200 buildings, where the AFU has accumulated ammunition, equipment, and military gear over an extended period. Some buildings are mined or fortified. This factor will also be significant if the decision is made to block rather than storm the plant’s territory.
Moreover, the coke chemical plant constitutes a complex engineering structure. The territory, including underground passages, allows for covert movement, ambushes, and the setting of traps. Clearing this territory will demand considerable effort and time.”
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