The total solar eclipse may be eclipsing weather news, but severe storms with very large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes will threaten the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and other parts of the South nearly every day this week. The most dangerous threat could be the potential for overnight tornadoes.
A chunk of energy will slowly drift east out of the Desert Southwest early this week. Ahead of that, warm, humid Gulf of Mexico air will stream north. Think of that air as fuel for a fire. On Monday, a decaying cold front will be the focus of the thunderstorms before a developing storm system takes over.
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This means the week ahead will feature day after day and round after round of thunderstorms with heavy rain, very large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes. The repeated soakings set several cities up for multiple inches of rain.
Jackson, Mississippi, and Plano, Texas, could see up to 5 inches of rain by Thursday. And Little Rock, Arkansas, could potentially see up to 8 inches.
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Nearly 34 million Americans are in the threat zone for Monday. Thunderstorms will start to build beginning in the early-afternoon hours as millions attempt to catch a glimpse of the total solar eclipse when it first enters the U.S. in Texas during the afternoon.
“Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region,” NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center warned. “Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible.”
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“The development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon Monday (likely starting ~3-4 PM) may only give a SHORT window of time to wrap up any eclipse activities and ensure you’re prepared to take action if a warning is issued for your location, especially in Central and East Texas,” the Dallas/Fort Worth National Weather Service office warned.
The biggest threat is very large hail, over 2 inches in diameter, but damaging winds and tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The storms will continue overnight.
A few may have an early wake-up call on Tuesday from Mother Nature. Storms will still be rumbling through the morning commute. Thunderstorms will settle down midday but pick up again in the afternoon as a low-pressure system from the Southwest moves into the southern Plains.
“The coverage of storms Tuesday and into Wednesday will again be messy with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to develop,” the Dallas/Fort Worth NWS office noted. “A threat for severe weather of all hazards exists for all of North & Central Texas once again. The flooding threat also increases during this time, especially east of I-35.”
The new storm system strengthens on Wednesday. Computer forecast models don’t agree quite yet on the exact timing of the storm.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the severe weather threat for Wednesday remains unclear due to the compex setup of an old cold front lingering across the region with the fast-approaching low-pressure system out of the South. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat, with a higher focus on Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast.”
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The FOX Forecast Center noted the greatest tornado threat may occur from late Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The strength and the timing of the low-pressure system keep the Thursday forecast in flux as well.
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It is likely that there will be severe storms as the area of low pressure continues moving north, but the severe weather ingredients could be weaker than earlier in the week, the FOX Forecast Center said. As it stands now, severe storms appear most likely in South Carolina, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.