The West Coast is in for a wild weather ride over the next week as a series of atmospheric rivers take aim through the first week of February, with clean-up from this week’s atmospheric river flooding in San Diego continuing.
The superhighway for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is back open, and everyone from Seattle to Los Angeles to Phoenix is nervously eyeing the Climate Prediction Center’s warning of risks for flooding, heavy rain, heavy snow and high winds for the third soaker, still a half-week out.
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“You have a big pattern change out West,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Amy Freeze. “We talk about the atmospheric river, that’s taking aim on the West Coast. Pay attention to this one. It’s said to blast the Golden State in a week. I know, a week ahead of time, what’s going on? Well, this has got all the hallmarks of a high-end flooding situation for California, some beach erosion, mudslides, potentially, and a lot of mountain snow.”
The first two atmospheric rivers target the Pacific Northwest.
“The first AR period begins early Fri 26 Jan as an AR makes landfall into the Pacific Northwest,” the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (C3WE) explained. “This AR kicks off a period of AR conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California expected to continue through Tue 30 Jan.”
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The second AR is forecast to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The best chance of flooding, according to C3WE, is along the Pacific Northwest coast and the Olympic Peninsula.
The third, and the strongest, starts the weather pattern change. The AR is forecast to make landfall on Tuesday in Washington and Oregon, then travel south.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the high-impact event could lead to significant flash flooding, major beach erosion, and property damage as February begins.
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A pipeline of tropical moisture will ride the jet stream and migrate south from the Pacific Northwest to California.
“The jet extension here has shown itself, and that means that the coastline is going to be inundated with rain, and there’s flood danger with that,” Freeze said. “The El Niño just exaggerates that.”
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“And if you’ve got, atmospheric rivers rolling in from the jet extension and then that sudden push from El Niño, you’ve got a very active week ahead, not only for California but the southern U.S.,” Freeze continued. “I think even the Southwest will have some issues, some flooding danger come out of this as well.”
The NWS’ Climate Prediction Center already placed a “high risk of hazardous, heavy precipitation” from Feb. 1-4 across California, Arizona and western New Mexico. Most of Nevada, central and southern Utah and parts of New Mexico are in the “moderate risk” category into Feb. 5.
“It was remarkable to see the Climate Prediction Center, reference the coastline of California,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan. “I mean, all 840 miles of the coastline where flooding is a possibility. Haven’t seen something like that (before), and the confidence is high.”
The flooding and runoff due to already saturated soil will cause other problems.
“The heavy precipitation can lead to localized flooding and landslides particularly in the regions that have recently received heavy rains,” wrote the CPC. “Across much of the southern half of the Intermountain West, heavy snow is expected at higher elevations.”
Strong winds will accompany the storm along the coast. That means downed trees, blown over because they are not anchored in the already saturated soil, and widespread power outages. Persistent high waves put the coast at risk for coastal erosion and flooding, similar to the surf that crashed into much of California in late December and early January.
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