The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the threat of severe weather that could produce thunderstorms packing large hail, wind damage and isolated tornadoes on multiple days this week across parts of the Plains, Midwest and South.
An upper-level jet stream disturbance is predicted to eject out of the Rockies and spawn an area of low pressure over the central U.S. by midweek.
“Down at the surface, we are looking at a dryline setup,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin explained. “The dryline divides that dry, dusty air in West Texas from all the heat and humidity streaming in from the Gulf. And this time of year, it’s a classic spring setup that we tend to see that kind of drive where we can see some independent thunderstorms form ahead of a cold front, so we’ll watch out for that risk.”
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the severe weather threat could begin Tuesday in two areas: near a low-pressure system in the central and northern Plains and along a dryline in the southern Plains.
This will be a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms, but the strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail and a few damaging wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
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The FOX Forecast Center said the threat of severe storms Wednesday remains uncertain due to a strong “cap” that is expected to be in place in the atmosphere over the Plains and Midwest.
A cap is essentially an atmospheric lid that prevents air from rising and condensing to form clouds and thunderstorms.
However, by late afternoon, the cap could begin to break, allowing at least scattered thunderstorms to develop across the central Plains and Upper Midwest, some of which will likely become supercells.
Large hail and wind damage will be the main threats in these areas as the storms track northeastward into the evening hours. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Farther south, in the southern Plains, the cap could also weaken enough to allow for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop from late afternoon into the evening, including the potential for supercells.
Large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be the main threats in this region as well, though an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
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A dryline from the southern Plains is expected to slide east into the Ozarks and lower and mid-Mississippi Valley, where a cold front will overtake it, the FOX Forecast Center noted.
Severe storms, including supercells, are predicted to develop along and ahead of that cold front during the late-afternoon and evening hours across parts of northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Louisiana, Arkansas and southern Missouri.
The main threats will be large hail and wind damage, but isolated tornadoes are also possible.
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The cold front will continue tracking eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Deep South on Friday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop near and ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening from northeastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and central and northern Mississippi.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats once again. However, isolated tornadoes are also possible in some areas.
An isolated severe weather threat could also extend north-northeastward into the Ohio Valley on Friday afternoon, with wind damage and hail as the primary concerns.
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On Saturday, the cold front will advance into the Southeast, where isolated severe storms can’t be ruled out in the afternoon. However, the FOX Forecast Center said the exact areas at risk and the magnitude of this threat remain uncertain since it’s still several days away.
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