NEW ORLEANS – A severe weather outbreak is expected to tear across the South beginning Tuesday and slide east through Thursday, highlighted by a Wednesday peak with a strong tornado threat along the central Gulf Coast as the spring storm season is in full swing.
The very stormy week on tap for much of the Gulf Coast and South could threaten millions with very large hail, damaging wind gusts and EF-2 or stronger tornadoes – many of which may occur during the overnight hours. Nighttime tornadoes are more than twice as likely to turn deadly as during the day.
The threat still covers Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday after those states saw a stormy night Monday, but the severe thunderstorms will shift eastward into portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday. Several cities in the South also face the risk of multiple inches of rain, which could lead to life-threatening flooding over the next few days.
Tuesday’s focus will be across Texas and Louisiana. The greatest threat from these storms is the potential for baseball-sized hail, as the ingredients will come together for powerful supercell thunderstorms.
“We have a likely setup for tornadoes for parts of southeast Texas, East Texas and Louisiana,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “We could see a tornado form all the way out in Central Texas and also pushing into Mississippi … these tornadoes could be fairly strong and EF-2 or stronger. That means the ability to cause significant damage to your home. So make sure that you have a way to get these warnings.”
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As the thunderstorms congeal into a line of storms Tuesday night, the primary threat will shift to wind gusts potentially more than 70 mph. The overall tornado threat with these storms appears low, but a tornado or two will be possible.
“As we work our way through tonight and also tomorrow (Wednesday), the risk does not go away,” Merwin said. “So it’s game time from now all the way through the end of the workweek.”
The severe storm threat will shift east on Wednesday as a powerful area of low pressure picks up steam, the FOX Forecast Center said. Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama will be the main focus areas throughout the day.
“Tornadoes are a big deal for tomorrow (Wednesday),” Merwin said. “We will see it today (Tuesday), as well. But tomorrow, when this weather system gets closer to Louisiana, it sucks up so much moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. So the ingredients have a little more punch tomorrow, a little more grit into the system.”
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The extent of the overall severe storm threat remains unclear, as it will depend on Tuesday’s trends. However, the environment will likely favor severe thunderstorm development, especially along the central Gulf Coast, shaded in dark red and magenta on the map above. The FOX Forecast Center said this area will have the best threat for significant severe storms, including EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. Outside of this, 70-plus-mph wind gusts will be the primary threat.
“There are a lot of threats,” Merwin said. “You want to stay close to home tomorrow.”
The severe weather threat for Louisiana is expected to decrease by Wednesday evening. However, it will still be a concern for Mississippi and Alabama, which is expected to persist through Wednesday night.
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Attention will shift to the Southeast on Thursday, particularly across Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Computer forecast models suggest that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will march east across the region during the morning. It remains uncertain whether that will be the primary driver of the severe weather threat or if additional severe storms develop that afternoon.
The primary threat with these storms will be 60-plus-mph wind gusts, along with quarter-sized hail.
It’s not just the lightning, hail, wind and possible tornadoes threatening the South, but 3-5 inches or more of rain could trigger life-threatening flooding across parts of the region over the next few days.
The heaviest rain is expected on Tuesday, though multiple rounds of rain will continue to fall through Thursday.
Jackson, Mississippi, and Plano, Texas, could see up to 5 inches of rain by Thursday. And Little Rock, Arkansas, could potentially see up to 8 inches.
The South has seen a soggy start to 2024, with multiple locations seeing one of their top five wettest starts of the year. Many locations are running 5-7 inches or more above average for the year, which only increases the threat of flooding as the ground remains soggy.