Strategic Wealth Partners CEO Mark Tepper issued a warning for the U.S.’s feeble housing market, Thursday, predicting on Mornings with Maria that the nation’s housing crisis will lead to a 7% unemployment rate by the end of 2023, leaving the U.S. economy in a “recession.”
US HOUSING MARKET SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF RECOVERY AS DEMAND RISES
It’s incredible because, you know, from my perspective, this shows that the Fed can really go higher and longer than most people are expecting because the economy is you know. The last quarter’s GDP number was actually pretty decent. I want to get back to talking about housing, though, because we mentioned that housing is in a recession, without a doubt. The homebuilder sentiment number is at 35 right now. And any time that’s under 50, we’re looking at a housing recession. Now, housing makes up about 20% of our economy.
When you look at all the ancillary businesses, furniture, appliances, and things like that, it’s about 20% of our economy. And the interesting thing is, if you take a chart of that home builder sentiment index, and you overlay a chart of the unemployment rate with a 12-month lag on the unemployment rate, they are identical to each other. And what that homebuilder sentiment number is telling me is that we are potentially looking at a 7% unemployment rate by the end of the year. That’s recession.
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