MANCHESTER United are staring at a potential £110m black hole – just as Sir Jim Ratcliffe promises a bright new dawn.
Ratcliffe is set to finally confirm his partial buy-out and take charge of United’s footballing future.
PASir Jim Ratcliffe is set to confirm his Man Utd takeover[/caption]
PAMan Utd are at risk of dropping out of the Champions League following a defeat to Copenhagen[/caption]
But even before Britain’s richest man can nestle his backside in the Old Trafford directors’ box, he faces the prospect of his first three weeks at United determining the next three YEARS.
That is because Erik ten Hag’s side face a make or break Champions League spell which will have massive financial and morale implications.
And even for a multi-billionaire who cannot easily count his riches, the impact on what Ratcliffe could then do to get United back to where they want to be would be significant.
This week, exactly 12 months after Ratcliffe first publicly registered his interest in an Old Trafford takeover, he is set to finally complete a rather lesser-scale agreement.
United fans have grown increasingly restless as the drawn-out deal seems to have stalled approaching the finishing line, even if there are no indications of any genuine problems.
But the fans hoping that Ratcliffe’s arrival can transform the club after he paid £1.25bn for a 25 per cent stake and control over “football operations” may have to recalibrate their ambitions.
United’s horror defeat in Copenhagen before the international break leaves them perilously close to the brink of a humiliating Champions League group stage exit.
Bottom of their group with just two games to go, United must negotiate a trip to the infamous “Hell” of Galatasary’s Ali Sami Yen Stadium, scene of one of Sir Alex Ferguson’s most miserable European upsets 30 years ago.
GettyMan Utd face a huge loss if they crash out of the Champions League[/caption]
Even victory in Istanbul would require United to get at least a draw when Harry Kane – the striker they were so desperate to sign but could not get – and his new Bayern Munich side come to Manchester next month.
While defeat in Turkey would leave them in danger of even missing out on the consolation prize of a place in the Europa League.
That nightmare would cost United an initial £13.5m – missing out on £8.35m for qualification plus £5m in gate receipts – and the chance of earning a potential £60m.
But it would also almost certainly end ANY chance of United being invited to play in the first incarnation of Fifa’s expanded Club World Cup, and a share of the likely £1bn cash pot, in 2025.
Europe has 12 slots in the 32 team tournament to be played in the USA, with Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City and this season’s Champions League winners earning automatic berths.
The other eight European places will be determined by the four-season “coefficient” table.
While senior Fifa figures had indicated only one place per nation would be allowed from that list – to ensure eight countries had teams involved – that is now understood to be subject to a rethink.
A cap of two per nation is being considered, with a final decision due to be made by Fifa at next month’s Council meeting in Jeddah.
GettyThe Red Devils could miss out on a huge amount of income[/caption]
Such a change – which still ensures qualification on sporting merit – would open the door to United getting the chance for a likely £50m windfall.
Bayern and Liverpool are effectively safe, with Jose Mourinho’s Roma, Inter, PSG and Villarreal currently the next in line.
United are seventh but only one one win ahead of Leipzig, while Porto would leapfrog the Old Trafford side as well if they win their final two group games and United lose both.
If that happens, United could finish the season no higher than ninth and out of the frame for the USA, joining fellow European giants Juventus and – unless they win the Champions League this term – Barcelona on the sidelines.
Such a scenario demonstrates that even a man of Ratcliffe’s wealth cannot influence everything and that events on the pitch have an impact off it as well.
Between those two games, the likely first home match of the Ratcliffe era will see him sit down to watch the club he has invested in face the team he tried to buy in 2022, when Chelsea visit Old Trafford.
Rebuffed then – he finally made a bid AFTER the deal with the Todd Boehly-led syndicate had been agreed – revenge might be sweet. And more than important as United seek to get back into the top four race.
That is the expectation of supporters and the Ineos involvement has been given Fergie’s seal of approval, with the legendary ex-boss telling the Gambling Zone: “I am optimistic about Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s investment in United.
“I am still a director of the club and I know Jim well. We shall have to see what he does but I am optimistic.”
One problem for Ratcliffe, for all his promises of investment, are Uefa and Prem financial rules.
Aside from the issue over multi-club ownership, where Ineos’ control of unlikely French title contenders Nice could mean United not able to play in Europe, new regulations mean teams playing in Uefa competitions can only spend 80 per cent of their revenue on wages and transfers next season, dropping to 70 per cent by 2025-26.
Even in the Prem, sides not in European football will be limited to spending between 85 and 90 per cent of their revenues on an annual basis.
Missing out on substantial revenues that rivals in the Prem will be earning will make that necessary overhaul harder to pull off.
Meanwhile, this weekend, while United face the backlash of Everton indignation at their unprecedented 10 point deduction, City and Liverpool will be going head to head in a match that might prove pivotal in the title race.
The sort of match United, under Fergie, pretty much assumed would involve them. That all seems a long time ago.
AFPMan Utd face Everton this weekend[/caption]