Then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) attends a House Republican Conference news conference on January 20, 2022 in Washington, DC. | Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
McCarthy will call a vote Tuesday on whether he will remain the leader of the House.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will call a vote Tuesday on whether he will remain the leader of the House.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has led a charge among right-wing Republicans to strip McCarthy of the speakership after he cut a deal with Democrats to fund the government for another 45 days — just before it would have otherwise shut down. Gaetz brought a motion to vacate the chair on the House floor Monday night, a procedural move that has never before been successfully used to oust a speaker.
This time, however, could be different. Although McCarthy does still have most of his caucus behind him, he needs a majority of the House to vote against his removal to stay in power. At the moment, the GOP has a four-vote majority, and there are at least four Republican lawmakers including Gaetz who have said they’ll vote to get rid of McCarthy.
So while the speaker has said that he is “confident” about the vote, he will likely need Democratic support to retain the speakership, and Democrats — even those with good working relationships with the GOP — have decided they won’t come to his rescue. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries gave several reasons for backing his counterpart’s ouster in a letter to his colleagues, including issues with how the majority party set up the chamber’s rules, McCarthy’s legislative practices, and the decision to launch an impeachment inquiry of President Joe Biden.
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) put it more simply when speaking to reporters Tuesday: “We’re not voting in any way that would help Speaker McCarthy … Nobody trusts Kevin McCarthy, and why should they?”
So far, McCarthy has ruled out the possibility of offering concessions to Democrats in exchange for helping him retain the speakership. Such concessions could include passing funding for Ukraine, which had become a sticking point in the spending fight amid waning public support for continuing to aid the country’s war efforts against Russia. It could also include ending the Biden impeachment inquiry.
Offering even small concessions would likely further weaken McCarthy’s standing among the GOP, however, potentially adding to the list of Republican lawmakers planning to vote for his ouster. But his reluctance to deal with Democrats at all may prove his demise.
“Unless a Republican is willing to work on a consistent basis with Democrats, then the far-right wing, who are more interested in burning the place down than getting something done, will retain control,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “It’s a more viable path than bending the knee to people who have no interest whatsoever in governing.”
If McCarthy is ousted, the House would remain in session until the fate of the speaker and any potential successor is decided.
There are three main contenders to replace him: Reps. Steve Scalise (R-LA), Tom Emmer (R-MN), and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), though all three have voiced their support for McCarthy. It’s not clear any of them would accept a speakership nomination, and it’s also unclear who else the party might rally around. That raises the question of whether there’s actually a viable alternative to McCarthy at all.
Who could be the next speaker?
Ousting McCarthy as speaker likely wouldn’t bring an end to Republican infighting, nor a quick resolution to ongoing budget negotiations, Ayres said.
“It’s virtually an impossible position as long as the far-right crazies continue to make life miserable for whoever is in that chair,” he said. “I can’t imagine wanting that job under the current circumstances.”
Scalise, the Republican majority leader, was the heir apparent to the speakership, but a cancer diagnosis could derail those plans. He did announce in September that he has pursued an aggressive treatment for his multiple myeloma, which has significantly improved his long-term prognosis. Gaetz, for his part, has said that he would support Scalise. Scalise was among multiple people who were injured when a gunman fired at lawmakers on a baseball field in 2017.
Otherwise, that leaves Emmer, the majority whip, and Stefanik, the conference chair. Emmer has publicly fumbled his whip duties on multiple occasions, allowing McCarthy to bring bills to the floor that didn’t have enough votes to pass. His critics have contrasted his performance with that of his Democratic predecessor Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) who, along with then Democratic leaders Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Steny Hoyer (D-MD), was known for being excellent at counting and keeping members in line on votes. Colleagues praised Emmer in a recent Washington Post piece about the possibility of him being nominated to be speaker, but it’s not clear he could get the 218 votes necessary to replace a fallen McCarthy.
Stefanik rose to prominence as a MAGA firebrand during the Trump presidency. Unlike McCarthy, Scalise, and Emmer — who have declined to issue endorsements in the Republican presidential primary so far — Stefanik has endorsed the former president for 2024. That may win her support among the party’s right flank, but would likely prove disqualifying among Democrats, meaning she would need nearly every Republican to support her to win the speakership. She’s seen as a good fundraiser, and has been focused on expanding — and diversifying — the GOP caucus over the past few years, including by targeting traditionally blue areas.
Even if the House votes to oust McCarthy, it could be a long and tedious task to identify a new speaker, especially given it’s not clear who might be able to garner the support of both GOP moderates and its far-right members. And should there be a new speaker, they will immediately be plagued by the same Republican disarray, with just weeks left to hash out a deal with Democrats to fund the government and avoid a shutdown.
Ayres predicts that, given the way that the spending fight has gone so far, debates over funding the government will likely “go up to the very last minute again before somebody pulls a rabbit out of a hat.”