A dangerous ice storm is forecast to affect the central Plains and mid-South starting later Sunday and into Monday morning, increasing the risk of significant icing, power outages and dangerous driving and travel conditions during the morning commute.
The FOX Forecast Center said that the disturbance will be moving from the Four Corners region in the Southwest to the southern Plains, spreading moisture north across the region starting Sunday.
High above the surface, a southerly flow will usher in warmer air. The FOX Forecast Center said that the warmer air aloft will overtake the freezing temperatures and create an environment in which snow will melt back into rain.
But with cold air still at the surface, the rain will likely freeze on contact with the ground, resulting in freezing rain that will rapidly develop Sunday night as air temperatures near the ground remain at or below freezing.
The greatest risk for dangerous ice will be found in eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri.
THE HIDDEN DANGERS OF ICE STORMS
The peak of the ice storm will, unfortunately, be ongoing Monday morning, making for a dangerous commute, the FOX Forecast Center warned. Any elevated surfaces that are not treated will ice over rapidly.
That will likely lead to dangerous, if not impossible, driving and travel conditions, especially in northwestern Arkansas.
This includes Fort Smith and Fayetteville, which face a significant risk of disruptive ice.
HOW MUCH ICE IS NEEDED TO KNOCK OUT POWER, DAMAGE TREES?
Ice Storm Warnings have now been issued for portions of northwestern Arkansas, with a total ice accretion possibly as high as a half-inch.
Anything over a quarter-inch of ice can cause numerous power outages and tree damage.
Most locations can expect to see closer to a tenth-inch of ice, but even low amounts such as that can cause several problems.
WHY DO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FREEZE BEFORE ROADS?
Thankfully, the warmer air will quickly move north, bringing milder conditions and changing the freezing rain over to plain rain showers, the FOX Forecast Center said. This should help melt the ice and limit any lingering impacts.
However, as the warm air continues to move in, the ice threat will shift farther north.
Ice and snow are expected to develop late Monday into Tuesday across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
HIDDEN DANGERS EXIST AFTER SNOW MELTS
Unlike the Plains, the duration of any ice is still in question, and it is unclear how severe the impacts will be, the FOX Forecast Center noted.
So far, it appears as though impacts will be largely limited to slick roads and accumulating ice on elevated surfaces, but sporadic power outages cannot be ruled out.
Colder air in the region will also allow for snow to break out across much of Wisconsin, Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes.
The FOX Forecast Center said some quick bursts of heavy snow are possible Tuesday morning, but impacts should remain low before the conditions improve on Tuesday evening.