Hurricane Idalia is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico and is on a collision course with Florida. It is forecast to become an extremely dangerous Category 3 hurricane, making landfall on Wednesday in the Big Bend area of Florida.
Damaging winds, flooding rains and life-threatening storm surges are likely along most of Florida’s west coast. After slamming Florida, the storm will race northeast and bring rain, wind, and some storm surge to the Carolinas late Wednesday into Thursday.
Floridians should be finalizing hurricane preparations and evacuating if told to do so with just hours left until impactful weather begins to arrive into the state. To provide historical context, there have been no major hurricanes tracked into Apalachee Bay since records have been kept in 1851, according to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.
“The clock has officially started. With Idalia’s forward speed taking off, every hour counts,” FOX Weather senior meteorologist Jordan Overton said. “All preparations must be completed now.”
Here are the key timing aspects for impacts from Hurricane Idalia, as parts of Florida are under Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings.
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Idalia is expected to continue to move to the north Tuesday followed by a faster north-northeast motion later in the day into Wednesday.
Damaging winds and heavy rains will come in ahead of the storm, with current forecast models suggesting landfall around the Big Bend area Wednesday morning, between the 7 a.m. to. noon ET timeframe, the FOX Forecast Center said. The storm will then move closer to the coast of the Carolinas on Thursday.
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The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline, the FOX Forecast Center said. The surge will begin Wednesday as the hurricane approaches the coast, with peak times as the hurricane nears and then passes.
Water could reach up to 12 feet above high tide levels from Aucilla River, Florida, to Chassahowitzka, Florida, if the peak storm surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Tampa and Tampa Bay are expected to experience dangerous storm surge up to 7 feet that will inundate significant areas, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Swells generated by Idalia will spread northward along the eastern U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Tropical storm conditions, defined as winds speeds of 39 mph or greater, are underway in the Dry Tortugas and will arrive within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Widespread tropical storm force winds are expected along Florida’s west coast Wednesday, with hurricane force winds (greater than 74 mph) likely by mid-morning where Idalia approaches landfall – currently forecast to be in the Big Bend area.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the warning area along the east coast of Florida and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the southeast U.S. coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early Wednesday.
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A few tornadoes will be possible Tuesday along the west central Florida coast as Idalia’s outer bands sweep through the region. The tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend by Tuesday night.
The tornado threat holds through Wednesday across much of northern Florida and into southeastern Georgia, and coastal South and North Carolina.
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Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas are expected to see 4-8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.