BILOXI, Miss. – The first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off in full force Thursday with a Hurricane Hunter aircraft expected to take flight and fly into Invest 91L. The mission: To investigate the tropical disturbance spinning above the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) significantly increased the chances of development for the tropical disturbance, which is also expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Sunshine State through the weekend.
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As of 8 a.m. EDT, the NHC said the tropical disturbance has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and a 50% chance of developing over the next week.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical disturbance became better organized Thursday morning, and the NHC said environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development. Therefore, a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form while the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
If the system does develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene.
The Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the tropical disturbance on Thursday using the WC-130J aircraft to investigate the system.
“It’s the perfect airframe for this because we just need data,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “What is actually going on? Do we have a closed low? That’s all the information that we’re looking for today.”
Merwin added that the flight is expected to take place between 1,000 and 10,000 feet and will use dropsondes, which are tubes containing weather instruments that are dropped from the airplane into the tropical disturbance to get essential data on the developing system.
The Hurricane Hunter flight is expected to take off around 1:45 p.m. EDT on Thursday and should be investigating the disturbance between 2:30 p.m. and 7 p.m. EDT.
On Friday, the Hurricane Hunter flight will take off around 6:15 a.m. EDT and will be flying in the tropical disturbance from 7 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. EDT.