WHETHER it begins tomorrow, next year, or next decade, another health threat is coming.
From the emergence of the new JN.1 Covid strain, to concerns over a more lethal Mpox variant, to the spread of mosquito-carried diseases from tropical countries, scientists predict an outbreak of sorts is on its way.
The world might not be prepared for another disease outbreak
As 2023 draws to a close, infectious disease health experts consider what 2024 could have in store for the world.
JN.1 Covid
The most obvious health threat is the new, more transmissible Covid strain that is already rapidly spreading in parts of the world.
The JN.1 bug was been labelled a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organisation (WHO) earlier this month, while
According to the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) latest estimates, JN.1 currently makes up between 15 per cent and 29 per cent of cases in the US.
The WHO have been careful to stress the risk posed by the strain is currently “low”.
“Based on the available evidence, the additional global public health risk posed by JN.1 is currently evaluated as low,” the UN organisation wrote.
The bug has not been found to lead to more severe symptoms than previous variants.
However, mutations could mean it’s spreading faster, and herd immunity is waning.
Prof Peter Openshaw, from Imperial College London, told the BBC: “It’s a surprisingly devious virus, sometimes making people quite ill and occasionally leading to having ‘long Covid’.”
Talking to The Sun earlier this month, he added: “Immunity falls over time, and for many, it’s been over a year since they had their last booster jabs.”
The more a virus changes, the less effective antibodies are at fighting it.
“The virus circulating now is quite different from the one we saw in 2020,” Prof Peter said.
“The new virus has become so much better at transmitting from person to person, and it’s likely only going to get better.
“It’s also much better at evading the current immunity from infection and vaccination.”
MPOX
And it’s not just Covid that could find itself in the media spotlight over the coming year.
A severe strain of mpox (previously called monkeypox) that kills one in 10 of those it infects is spreading, health officials have announced.
There are two types of the mpox virus: Clade I and Clade II.
Clade I has a higher mortality, with a fatality rate of around 10 per cent.
Clade II is generally milder, and this type was circulating in Europe last year.
“We are worried about Clade I expanding to other countries, and there’s very little attention on mpox right now,” Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, an expert on infectious diseases, told Sky News.
It comes after nearly 600 have died of suspected Clade 1 mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), many of those children.
A further 11,988 have been infected in the nation’s largest-ever outbreak.
The death toll has already overtaken the 112 global fatalities recorded during last summer’s epidemic when the disease was spotted in the UK for the first time.
DENGUE FEVER
Dengue – a lethal disease spread by mosquitos – will soon be in the UK.
The “breakbone fever” has been spotted in France, Italy and most recently Cyprus.
In response, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) announced last month that it would install mega mosquito traps in ports, service stations and truck stops in places like London and Kent by mid-2024.
This is to monitor the number of mosquitos, called Aedes albopictus, transported via lorry and shipping containers into the country.
The UK government has predicted the mozzies could be common in England by the 2040s.
Typically, the pests reside in tropical climates.
But scientists say climate change, which brings frequent heatwaves and flooding to Europe, has created more favourable conditions for the critters.
“This is not a theoretical risk into the future. It’s happening now, and it has to be addressed now,” said Dr Maria.
MEASLES
Cases of measles, one of the world’s most infectious diseases, have increased by over 3,000 per cent in Europe over the last year.
More than 30,000 infections were reported between January and October 2023, up significantly from the 941 in all of 2022, according to the WHO.
The surge is being blamed on falling vaccination coverage in all 53 of the European member states since 2020. This includes the UK.
“This is concerning,” Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, said.
Officials are now calling for “urgent” action to be taken to stop potentially killer outbreaks.
There is no treatment or cure for measles, but safe and effective MMR jabs (which protect against measles, mumps and rubella) are available.
“Vaccination is the only way to protect children from this potentially dangerous disease,” Dr Kluge said.
Cases of measles have reached a three-year high in the UK, as parents are not vaccinating their children.
The latest NHS figures also show MMR vaccine uptake is at its lowest level since 2010/2011, with only 84.5 per cent of kids receiving both doses by age five.
Up to 102,000 children in England aged four and five started the school year without being jabbed, meaning they are at high risk.
Measles commonly causes a fever, runny nose, cough, red eyes, sore throat and a distinctive rash – with the virus usually clearing within two weeks.
It can sometimes lead to complications such as pneumonia, meningitis, seizures, blindness or even death if it spreads to other parts of the body, such as the lungs or brain.
This is of particular concern for babies and those who are immunosuppressed.
It is also more severe in pregnancy, and increases the risk of miscarriage, stillbirth or preterm delivery.
ARE WE PREPARED?
It’s been four years since Covid began ripping through the entire world.
Four years on, are we any more prepared for an outbreak than we were then?
Yes, and no, Dr Maria said.
On the one hand, surveillance, testing, and infection prevention is many countries has improved, she explained, putting us in good stead.
But some things make the expert less sure about how prepared we are to tackle a new pandemic.
She explained: “I look at the attacks on science and on scientists, the politicisation of every aspect of Covid.”
She also said some countries may be less motivated to report new bugs because of the negative financial and political impact.
“So on my less optimistic side, I’m really concerned that in some aspects we’re worse off than we were even four years ago,” she added.