October’s first storm will finally bring a taste of fall after much of the country slipped back into summer. Fall, the second severe weather season, arrives in the Plains with the threat of thunderstorms packing damaging winds, hail and possible tornadoes. Higher elevations will finally see a little snow. And everyone will feel more seasonable temperatures with cooling relief.
A storm gets cooking on the eastern side of the Rockies into Monday and pushes east through the week. The trailing cold front will set up the perfect recipe for strong storms and cooler temperatures.
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Keep an eye on the sky from midday through the evening on Monday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center warns of a few supercell thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado for the southern High Plains.
Colorado, Wyoming and the Dakotas could also see a few storms with damaging winds and hail, along with heavy rain.
Meanwhile, the snow starts falling across the higher elevations of the Rockies.
Snow continues on Tuesday in the higher elevations of the West. The highest elevations across Utah could see up to a foot of snowfall. Look for a half-foot across the highest mountains in Wyoming. Mountain peaks in Colorado will pick up 1 to 4 inches of snow.
In the Plains, the storm will pump in Gulf of Mexico moisture, which shifts the severe weather threat east over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and up into western Kansas.
Lingering morning showers will clear, and the next round of thunderstorms forms in the afternoon and rumbles into the evening. Watch for a couple of supercell thunderstorms. The severe storms will pack the potential for quarter-sized hail and 60-mph wind gusts.
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Meanwhile, the FOX Forecast Center said Canadian-cooled air will begin spilling into the northern Plains, where some locations will go from highs in the 90s on Monday to highs in the 70s on Tuesday – a welcome relief.
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By Wednesday morning, the cold front will stretch from roughly Minnesota down into Texas, once again leading to widespread rain out along the front.
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According to the FOX Forecast Center, the bulk of the action will be focused in Oklahoma and Texas as the front will slow down.
Slow-moving rain will brings the threat of flash flooding.
Between Tuesday and Friday, large portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas could see 2 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated areas receiving 3 to 5 inches.
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The rain will continue in the southern Plains on Thursday as cooler temperatures begin to filter in from the north.
By Friday, the computer forecast models are hinting at a secondary cold front with another shot of cool Canadian air, which will continue spreading south and east across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the weekend.