What started out as an unusually quiet period for the eastern Pacific has turned active with Tropical Storm Adrian being tracked a few hundred miles off the coast of Mexico and a secondary area off Guatemala being given a high chance for development.
Tropical Storm Adrian is expected to become a hurricane as it slowly moves away from the Mexican coastline.
Typically, the first named storm forms on June 10, and the first hurricane is upgraded on June 26, so the eastern Pacific is running slightly behind schedule, which is unusual for an El Niño year.
During El Niño patterns, the eastern Pacific is known to be extremely productive with warm water temperatures and relaxed upper-level winds known as shear.
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At last report, Adrian was located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Sustained winds were last estimated to be 45 mph with higher gusts, which makes Adrian a tropical storm.
Due to the system’s proximity to Central America, higher-than-normal seas are expected for the next few days. The additional motion in the ocean could help enhance rip currents and lead to rough boating conditions.
Due to the limited threats Adrian possesses to Mexico, no watches or warnings are in place.
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Due to an upper-level ridge in place north of the cyclone, Adrian is expected to slowly trek towards the west, over the open Pacific Ocean.
The same area of high pressure has helped produce a historic heat wave for parts of Mexico and Texas.
During the next seven days, the tropical cyclone is expected to become the season’s first hurricane.
Increased waves and higher surf could impact Mexico’s Pacific coastline through the week.
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The National Hurricane Center continues to track an area of disturbed weather off the coast of Guatemala.
Gradual development of this disturbance is expected over the next several days, and the NHC believes a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
According to the NHC, the disturbance has a 60% chance of development over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next seven days.
If the system organizes enough to become a tropical storm, this system will earn the name Beatriz.