Severe storms with isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, including the Minneapolis area, and farther south into a swath that covers parts of Missouri and Oklahoma.
The threat on Tuesday comes a day after severe thunderstorms slammed the Dakotas and parts of Missouri with ferocious wind gusts that reached 70-80 mph or more.
A cold front is moving eastward from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, with high amounts of moisture surging north ahead of the front, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
While the front will bring thunderstorms from Minnesota to Northern Texas, there are two areas in particular under the threat of more intense storms.
The first is in the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop along and ahead of the front around midday in western Minnesota, with storms moving eastward into an area of greater instability as the day progresses, reaching the Minneapolis area around the time of the evening commute.
Overall, the greatest storm coverage is forecast to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 5 on their Severe Weather Risk scale for much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin, including Minneapolis and Duluth.
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This environment will likely support supercells with gusts over 60 mph and isolated large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The severe threat is expected to continue through much of the evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward toward the Great Lakes.
A second area of concern covers southwestern Missouri into northeastern Oklahoma, including the towns of Springfield, Missouri, Tulsa, Oklahoma and even the northern Oklahoma City suburbs.
Here again, the front is expected to tap into a moist, unstable airmass that will fuel isolated supercell thunderstorm development late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. These storms look more isolated in general, but where storms do happen, gusts could reach well over 60 mph. Large hail is possible as well, but the primary threat is strong wind.
Again, NOAA’s SPC has highlighted this area as a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather Tuesday:
The storms come a day after much of the Dakotas were blasted by severe wind gusts. Strong thunderstorms formed into a line across the Dakotas and Northern Plains, triggering gusts of 70-80 mph or more.
Selfridge, North Dakota reported a gust of 88 mph Tuesday evening, while Sibley Peak, Wyoming hit 78 mph, North Platte, Nebraska hit 76 mph and Meadow, South Dakota hit 72 mph. In all, there were nearly 30 storm reports of gusts of 60 mph or higher in the region, according to National Weather Service storm reports.
A second cluster of strong thunderstorms hit Missouri Monday evening, with peak gusts of 66 mph in Northwye and 60 mph in Farmington. The fire department in Doolittle, Missouri said they responded to “countless wires down and trees blocking roadways.”
The cold front will continue east across the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Similar ingredients will lead to strong thunderstorms forming during the mid-to-late afternoon near and ahead of the front. Isolated wind damage would be the primary threat, although a large hail threat may also occur in some of the stronger storms.
The severe threat could persist into the evening as the cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley.
The line of storms will continue into the Ohio River Valley and eventually drape over the East Coast heading into the weekend. Most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will see multiple days of rain, which will usher in heat relief.
Outdoor activities could be limited as pockets of heavy rain disrupt the afternoon hours.
As the system progresses east, the front will extend down to the Gulf Coast bringing some beneficial rain to the south. The front is likely to stall allowing for showers and thunderstorms to break out across Texas and Louisiana where rain is desperately needed.