DALLAS – An untimely severe weather event may threaten the skies over North and East Texas just as millions hope to take in the spectacle of the last total solar eclipse in the U.S. for more than a decade.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained an early severe weather risk Monday for North and East Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and slivers of southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana – a slight shift back to the west and south with Friday’s updated forecast compared to Thursday’s forecast.
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The risk zone encompasses the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex and several other towns right in the heart of the eclipse’s path of totality.
Forecast models give early indications that an upper-level low-pressure system will move into the Desert Southwest on Monday, interacting with a moist air mass and deep wind shear in place from much of central, north and east Texas east into Louisiana, the SPC noted.
That atmospheric setup would be conducive to developing a large cluster of severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon into Tuesday night.
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“It’s good that the Storm Prediction Center is watching this already and giving this heads up,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan. “This is something that people from all over the world travel to see. And if you go based on climatological norms – 20-30 year averages, Texas is the hot spot to be because that is where normally cloud cover is the least (along the path).”
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The saving grace is that the severe weather threat may hold off until the late afternoon or evening and, thus, after the eclipse has passed through the region. The eclipse begins in Dallas at 12:23 p.m. CT with just under 4 minutes of totality occurring between 1:40 and 1:44 p.m. CT.
But the budding storm clouds could provide unwanted cloud cover.
“This is quite a window for folks living in Dallas (and) for folks traveling to Dallas – and all you need is that four-minute window when you don’t have the clouds in front,” Morgan said. “And how many days have you seen where clouds develop and you still have the sun – a mix of sun and clouds? So I’m going for that perfect forecast.”
And even if storms hold off until after the eclipse, it could catch travelers off guard in what is expected to be heavy traffic through the rest of the day as eclipse gazers head home.
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The SPC will issue more detailed severe weather threat forecasts once the event is within three days. Meanwhile, FOX Weather is keeping you updated on the forecast along the entire path of totality as Monday’s big event approaches.