LOS ANGELES – As California finally gets a sunny weekend to wring out and clean up from record rainfall and deadly storms earlier this week, long-range weather forecasts show a renewed flooding threat as the weather pattern reverts later this week.
California will remain on a break from the weather through the work week, but a series of atmospheric river storms are lining up once again to push through the Golden State starting next weekend and possibly lingering into the following week. Each storm could bring heavy rain and high winds to California, with heavy snow at higher elevations between Feb. 17-21, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
CPC’s forecasters say there is at least a 60% chance of hazardous, heavy precipitation across much of California during that time frame, stretching from both its northern and southern borders. Moderate risks of 40-60% for hazardous amounts of rain are posted along the eastern California deserts into Arizona.
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With the storms still several days away, it’s too early to nail down specific timing and forecast rainfall/mountain snowfall amounts, but the state is particularly vulnerable to any storms of substance right now.
“There is a significant flooding risk for much of California, especially in regions with saturated soils from heavy precipitation earlier in February,” the CPC wrote in a key message statement Friday. “Shallow landslides and rock falls are always possible in California during periods of heavy rainfall in winter. Outdoor activities and travel may be negatively impacted by the unsettled weather.”
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Los Angeles received just over 9 inches of rain as two atmospheric rivers slammed the region earlier this month – about 60% of the city’s annual rainfall average. Over 500 mudslides covered Los Angeles-area roads, and dozens of homes suffered damage.
The San Francisco Bay Area had hundreds of thousands lose power during ferocious winds, and multiple people were killed in Northern California from falling trees.
In all, 12 people have died in California from weather-related events since the stormy pattern began in late January.
The storms have been a calling card of a “Super” El Niño pattern in force through the winter. It’s just the sixth time since 1950 that an El Niño has reached such strength, defined as when waters in the Central Pacific Ocean reach at least 2.0 degrees C (3.8 degrees F) above average.
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El Niño patterns tend to energize the southern jet stream, steering strong storms across the Pacific into California, and this El Niño has been no different. El Niño is likely on its way out soon but may not be in time to keep the rainy pattern away from California this winter.