UPDATED Sunday at 8:45 a.m.
The Tropical Disturbance we have been following – tagged by the NHC as Invest 94L – is a large area of low pressure and associated disorganized thunderstorms. It has lost a little organization since yesterday, but it’s still expected to pull itself together as it heads in the general direction of the northeast Caribbean through this week.
The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the system is more likely to affect the islands directly if it stays relatively weak and more likely to turn north if it strengthens significantly – perhaps into Hurricane Tammy – before reaching the islands.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a high chance of becoming at least a tropical depression this week. Tropical depression status is important because it means the system has sufficient organization to intensify from there. Without an organized circulation, the mechanics of intensification can’t happen.
On the current schedule, the system will be in the general vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands on Friday or Saturday. The question is, how strong will it be? As above, the strength will affect its track.
The latest computer forecasts are favoring a weaker system, but they have been fluctuating. If and until an organized system forms, confidence in any one forecast is low.
Everyone in Puerto Rico and the surrounding island should plan to stay informed this week as the forecasts evolve.
There is no threat to the U.S. or surrounding areas. The cold front pushing through Florida today will block any path toward the west. The Atlantic system will turn north – the only question is whether that happens before it reaches the islands.
In the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression Sean is on its last legs. It’s in the process of dissipating.
Over Central America, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to gain strength over the next week or two. This is a normal October occurrence. In the future, we’ll watch to see if any consolidated low-pressure systems might be spawned in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. As long as the cold fronts keep coming, however, we’re good.