The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the evolution of a classic springtime storm system that could trigger a multi-day severe weather outbreak during the start of the workweek.
Forecast models show energy associated with a wet weather system impacting California this weekend will transition into a healthy storm over the Plains.
The combination of adequate moisture and atmospheric conditions is expected to allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms starting Monday, with communities along the Interstate 35 corridor from North Texas through Kansas being at most risk.
“With the multi-day severe weather threat, you’re going to have a lot of people that are affected. Obviously, Dallas up toward Oklahoma City, Wichita, that’s next Monday into Monday night. Then we get into Tuesday, and the whole system kind of ejects out into the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley,” said meteorologist Ari Sarsalari.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted communities in more than half a dozen states for being at an increased risk on Monday, from Texas to Iowa, with the entire storm system working in a northeasterly direction.
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Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along a line from Texas through Oklahoma on Monday afternoon and work towards the east and northeast.
While storms are discrete in nature, they pose the highest chance of producing a significant tornado versus a linear segment, which is more characteristic of damaging winds.
Communities such as Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls, Texas, are all included in the zone where discrete cells may form and produce all modes of severe weather.
April storm systems in this part of the country tend to produce the second-highest amount of tornadoes during the entire year, only being outdone by May’s activity.
The continued march of the storm system towards the north and east will result in the possibility of severe storms from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday.
While the expanse of the population underneath an increased threat zone is significantly greater than on Monday, it is still unclear whether the storms will be as dynamic as during the previous day’s events.
Atmospheric ingredients may not be as prime as on Monday but will still allow for significant thunderstorm activity between Milwaukee and Little Rock, Arkansas.
Included in the threat zone are communities such as Chicago and St. Louis, Missouri.
Behind the storm system, much colder air is expected to filter into much of the northern tier of the country, with temperatures that will be at least five to ten degrees below average.