Tropical Depression Twenty-One has developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea off the Central American coast as the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season nears its conclusion at the end of November.
It’s been a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic with 21 systems developing and seven strengthening into hurricanes.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered about 35 miles to the southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, and is moving to the west-northwest at 5 mph. The system has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph with some higher gusts.
There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for Tropical Depression Twenty-One, but forecasters warn that the coast of Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Tropical Depression Twenty-One is moving to the west and is expected to move inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday, producing heavy rain across portions of Central America.
No strengthening is expected before Tropical Depression Twenty-One makes landfall with 30 mph gusts. It’s expected to dissipate on Tuesday.
Between 4 and 8 inches of rain is expected across Nicaragua, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Up to 6 inches are possible across southern and eastern Honduras.
These rainfall totals will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
The season kicked off early with a subtropical storm forming in January in the western Atlantic. That was a possible indication that water temperature trends would be favorable for more tropical cyclone activity later in the season.
Complicating matters for forecasters was the emergence of an El Niño during the usual height of activity.
WILL THE STRENGTHENING EL NINO CAUSE THE HURRICANE SEASON TO SHUT DOWN EARLY?
As a general rule of thumb, forecasters have long said that when an El Niño is in charge in the Pacific, it generally means decreased activity in the Atlantic, but that has not been the case this year.
The 2023 El Niño has not led to cooler water temperatures in the Atlantic, hostile winds across the basin or a host of other issues that tropical cyclones must contend with.
FLORIDA EVERGLADES WATER TEMPERATURES REACH HOT-TUB LEVELS
In fact, water temperatures off the coast of Florida broke records this summer when a water quality station in Manatee Bay in Everglades National Park measured a temperature of 101.1 degrees in July.
That temperature may have set a world record, but it’s difficult to verify a world sea-surface temperature because of how temperatures are monitored around the world.