Florida tornado threat grows as tropical moisture from Gulf of Mexico surges into Southeast

TAMPA, Fla. – Brace yourself for potential tornadoes and waterspouts in northern and central Florida Wednesday and Thursday as a substantial amount of tropical moisture advances into the Southeast, ushering in a prolonged wet spell for multiple states in the drought-stricken region.

The FOX Forecast Center predicted that there is a higher-than-usual chance of tornadoes and waterspouts in northern and central Florida from Wednesday evening through at least Thursday morning. 

The main threat on Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours will be centered over parts of the coastal Florida Panhandle and the western Florida Peninsula. That includes the Tampa Bay area.

Favorable conditions in the eastern Gulf of Mexico may cause waterspouts to form and move toward the shore, particularly on Thursday morning. Though these waterspouts and tornadoes are expected to be weak, they could still cause minor damage.

Thursday morning’s area of greatest concern stretches across much of the northern and central Florida Peninsula, including Orlando and Tampa/St. Petersburg.

WHAT IS A WATERSPOUT?

The FOX Forecast Center said the moisture will lead to widespread rain from Louisiana to Florida to South Carolina through Friday.

“You don’t have to have a tropical depression or a tropical storm to have deep tropical moisture,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “But it means the difference between the type of rain that you see if you’re a local along the Gulf Coast … we’re talking about opening up the gates here.”

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Some of the rain will be heavy at times, so there are concerns for flash flooding later Wednesday and again Thursday. 

“All the moisture that’s in Texas and specifically that’s offshore, which is where the heaviest rain is, it’s going to be pushing into Florida today,” Merwin said. “And by later tonight through tomorrow, we could have a flooding concern.”

Between 2 and 3 inches of rain is expected to fall over portions of northern and central Florida and southern Georgia.

Isolated spots of the Florida Peninsula could receive as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain, potentially including the Orlando and Tampa Bay metro areas.

HOW HEAVY IS IT REALLY GOING TO RAIN?

Coastal flooding will also be a problem for southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

At high tide cycles, 1 to 3 feet of inundation is expected in New Orleans and into extreme southwestern Mississippi, the FOX Forecast Center said.

   

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