NEW ORLEANS – A new tropical disturbance formed early Monday in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and will be monitored for development as it heads north through midweek. Regardless of the system’s status – tropical or non-tropical – it is forecast to bring heavy downpours to the U.S. Gulf Coast, a parched region in desperate need of rain.
An area of showers and thunderstorms became Disturbance No. 1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, on Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Environmental conditions in this part of the Gulf of Mexico are marginally favorable for some additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward.
As of the latest NHC outlook, there is a low chance that a tropical depression could form within the next two days. However, the system will merge with a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek, likely ending its opportunity for development.
The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon providing more data that will then be ingested into the computer forecast models.
Regardless of development, there is both good and bad news for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
The system will bring heavy tropical rain along the Gulf Coast. The FOX Forecast Center is predicting between 3 and 5 inches of rain will fall from New Orleans to Tampa, Florida, over the next week. Heavy rain could lead to isolated flash flooding across the region.
This is good news because much of the region continues to face drought conditions. Southeastern Texas, southern Mississippi and nearly 60% of Louisiana are under exceptional drought, the most severe on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale.
The rain will be beneficial to many cities, including Houston, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida.
The drought in Louisiana is contributing to the saltwater intrusion happening in Plaquemines Parish and is forecast to impact parishes farther upriver in late October and into November. The low flow levels in the Mississippi River, because of drought, are not enough to keep the Gulf of Mexico seawater from moving upriver. As the saltwater wedge continues north, it has impacted at least two drinking water treatment facilities and is expected to cause problems farther upriver.
Areas including Galliano and Port Sulphur could see up to 5 inches of rain throughout the week. This includes the communities along the Mississippi River preparing for drinking-water impacts as the Gulf of Mexico salt water intrudes farther upriver.
However, much of the rain that helps keep the Mississippi River flowing enough to keep the Gulf of Mexico at bay comes from the Midwest, which is also facing moderate to exceptional drought.
Normally, the Mississippi River holds off the Gulf of Mexico with a flow of about 300,000 cubic feet per second. The flow has been almost half that due to drought, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
The rain will still be beneficial to Louisiana and the U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Residents in Louisiana received good news last week as officials said the forecast had improved on the lower Mississippi River, delaying the salt water from the Gulf of Mexico moving farther upriver.