A fall storm stretching from roughly Minnesota into Texas will bring widespread showers and some thunderstorms Wednesday, with a particular severe weather and flash flooding threat focused on the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the bulk of the action will focus on Oklahoma and Texas, where the cold front slows down, allowing additional moisture to stream into the region. The big storms, however, will take some time to develop Wednesday with the worst storms timed for the evening.
“The first half today is kind of a snooze alert,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “We might see a few showers, few thunderstorms. The risk is later today.”
The storms will trigger a good, soaking rain that is desperately needed for the region, as they are in the midst of drought conditions after a long and hot summer. However, in some areas the rain will fall too quickly, and flash flooding is almost a certainty across portions of Texas, the FOX Forecast Center adds.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed a swath of North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in a level 3 out of 4 on their flash flood risk scale.
Overall, as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain will be possible through Thursday with higher amounts locally. More than 5 inches of rain could fall in and around the Dallas–Ft. Worth Metroplex, which will likely lead to street flooding.
A second area of storms moving in off the Gulf of Mexico will bring scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain to Southeastern Texas. After several inches of rain fell during thunderstorms Tuesday, additional heavy rainfall will likely trigger some flash flooding from Galveston to near Houston. Flood Watches are in effect for portions of Southeastern Texas, including Galveston.
“If you’re in a spot that saw heavy rain (Tuesday), be alert to conditions today, as these locations will be much more sensitive to heavy rainfall today,” NWS forecasters in Houston wrote.
There will also be a potential for few severe storms focused around the northern half of Texas that stretches into Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City, the FOX Forecast Center said.
“The Metroplex is included,” Merwin said, “So Dallas, Fort Worth and also moving into Oklahoma City … we got three metropolitan areas that need to look out for this.”
The region sits in SPC’s Level 2 of their 5-point severe weather risk zone Wednesday, with large hail and damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph being the main threat – though the region around Wichita Falls may see gusts over 75 mph.
“We’ve verified hurricane-force wind gusts over the last two days with all of the storms that have been moving through this region,” Merwin said. “So, no question we’re going to see that verified today.”
A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, either.
By Thursday, the system will begin to lose some steam as the main energy and driver of it begin to lift north into Canada. This will lead to the cold front to slow down, and in some cases become much less noticeable in parts of the Upper Midwest and the heartland of America.
Across the Southern Plains, the front will make little progress, once again increasing the threat for heavy rain across the state of Texas, with the possibility of some rain extending into Louisiana, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Many locations, especially in the South, will still see a fairly significant cooldown, which is welcome relief after a very hot and muggy summer.
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