Flash flood concerns are expected as thunderstorms develop over the Southern Plains on Thursday, marking the start of a multiday severe weather threat that carries through the weekend.
A front remains draped over the region, which will combine with an upper-level disturbance over the area to destabilize that atmosphere and help kick off storm development.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed a level 2 out of 5 of the severe weather risk scale for Nebraska as well as pretty much along the Red River bordering Oklahoma and Texas.
THE 5-POINT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY SCALE EXPLAINED
Some storms may reach severe limits, producing quarter-size hail – perhaps even larger in central Nebraska – and damaging winds up to 60 mph.
“The north suburbs of Dallas and the south part of Oklahoma could really be hit hard later (Thursday),” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “Oklahoma City, you do have the potential for severe weather. But again, it’s going to be right along the Red River where we have the best dynamics at play for hail and maybe some isolated tornadoes.”
This area has already seen significant rain in recent days – as much as 2-4 inches in a few of the thunderstorms – so additional rain falling over already-saturated soils will likely result in flash flooding across eastern Oklahoma and portions of Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas during the afternoon and evening, the FOX Forecast Center said.
There is the potential of 3 to 5 inches of rain out of those thunderstorms in Oklahoma – enough to promote a flood concern.
“We do have a 2 out of 4 (risk level) setup for flooding across parts of southeast Oklahoma and north Texas,” Merwin said. “So make sure that you’re looking out for those low-lying spots and also some urban flooding potential across places like Oklahoma City.”
Meanwhile, as a cold front continues pressing eastward out of the West, it will morph into a severe weather threat into the nation’s midsection – also right on time as the start of astronomical fall signals the beginning of the second severe weather season.
FALL IS THE SECOND SEVERE WEATHER SEASON
On Friday, the severe weather threat focuses again in the northern and central Plains with a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk highlighted by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center for much of Nebraska into southern South Dakota.
But the severe weather threat expands across much of the Plains on Saturday, as per the SPC’s forecast, with a Level 2 risk extending from southern Minnesota south into central Oklahoma. Threats include damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes.
“A big story that we’re following,” Merwin said. “So get ready for more stormy skies as they are expected as we continue to get into fall.”
There will be widespread rain from the Rockies to the southern Plains, with some thunderstorms again dropping 2 inches of rain or more in the severe weather threat zone, continuing the risk of flash flooding.