A tropical disturbance swirling off the western Africa coast has developed enough to be designated as Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, and some long range forecast models suggest it could eventually have eyes on the Caribbean.
An “invest” is a designation given by the National Hurricane Center for tropical disturbances that warrant additional monitoring.
As of Saturday, the tropical wave is producing showers and thunderstorms south-southeast of the Cape Verde with sustained winds of 30 mph. But as it moves west over the Atlantic at 15-20 mph, vertical wind shear will be extremely low and water temperatures remain at record levels. This will allow the wave to quickly organize and strengthen without issue, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
A tropical depression could form within the next few days, and perhaps become a named tropical storm or hurricane soon after. The next name on the list is Lee.
“The disturbance has lots of runway to organize into a mature tropical storm or hurricane on its track to the general vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands next week,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “On the current schedule, the system would reach the islands or the waters north of them about next Saturday.”
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However, Norcross stressed it is still way too early to know if the storm will impact the Caribbean islands or the U.S.
“The final track will likely be dependent on how strong the system gets and on what timetable, which can’t be known except in a general sense,” Norcross said. “The disturbance is expected to organize and intensify, but whether that happens early or late in the week is an open question.”
In the meantime, the NHC has given 95L a 20% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by the end of the weekend and a 70% chance within the next week.