As we approach the peak of hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is eyeing four areas to watch in the Atlantic Ocean, with the one closest to the U.S. expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
The tropical disturbance eyeing the Gulf of Mexico is known as Disturbance #4, and it is currently located near the northwestern and central Bahamas.
From there, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, with possible slow development afterward. As it continues to move westward, the disturbance could become a tropical depression by the time it hits the western Gulf of Mexico coastline, which includes Louisiana and Texas. In the meantime, the west coast of Florida will potentially see rain.
The NHC said the chances of the disturbance developing within the next two days are near 0%, but the chances for development over the next seven days rise to 50%.
The other areas of concern in the Atlantic are invests. As their name suggests, invests are areas of weather that are being investigated by the NHC for possible tropical development within the next seven days.
The invest closest to the U.S., Invest 90L, is located just east of the Windward Islands, which includes Caribbean islands such as St. Lucia and Grenada. The disturbance is currently moving across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea at 10 to 15 mph. It may undergo some gradual development, with a tropical depression possibly forming during the early and middle parts of next week, according to the NHC.
The chances of the disturbance developing within the next two days are 20%, and the chances for development over the next seven days rise to 40%.
One of the other invests in the Atlantic, Invest 99L, and it is located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic and the Lesser Antilles. According to the NHC, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development of this system during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
GUIDE FOR 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
The chances of Invest 99L developing over the next two days stands at 30%, while its chances of developing over the next seven days are also at 30%.
The third, Invest 98L, and it is located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. As it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic this weekend, Invest 98L is likely to form into a short-lived tropical depression, according to the NHC. By early next week, however, upper-level winds over the system are expected to increase, and further development is not expected.
The chances of Invest 98L developing over the next two days are high at 70%, while its chances of developing over the next seven days are also at 70%.
If any of these four disturbances develop into a tropical cyclone it will be named Emily.