Hilary rapidly intensified into a hurricane on Thursday morning after developing into a tropical storm on Wednesday, and forecasters say that the hurricane’s path could bring “significant” impacts to Southern California and the Southwest by the end of the week and into the first part of next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.
“Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its latest advisory.
Ocean water off the coast of California is cool, so winds should diminish the intensity of Hurricane Hilary if the forecast track brings the storm to the Golden State. What forecasters are keeping an eye on will be the abundant tropical moisture that could be flowing into California, Nevada and Arizona.
Flooding from heavy rain will be a significant threat, but the biggest impacts are still unknown as the storm is still several days out.
Here’s a closer look at Hurricane Hilary.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE TROPICS IN AUGUST
Hurricane Hilary is located about 320 miles to the southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 560 miles to the south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
HOW TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON
The NHC says Hurricane Hilary is expected to continue to spin off to the west-northwest through Thursday night. A tun to the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On this path, the center of Hurricane Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over the weekend, according to the NHC.
CALIFORNIA GETTING HIT BY TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS EXTREMELY RARE
The Mexican government has issued Tropical Storm Watches for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro southward on the west coast and San Evaristo southward on the east coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when tropical storm winds (39 mph to 73 mph) are possible in the watch area within 48 hours.
Additional Tropical Storm Watches or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be issued later on Thursday, according to the NHC.
Large swells generated by Hurricane Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula over the next few days. Those swells, according to the NHC, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
As Hurricane Hilary spins closer to the U.S.-Mexico border, millions of people living in Southern California and the Southwest will need to keep an eye on a surge of tropical moisture expected to impact the region.
Hurricane Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday morning. Flash flooding, which could be significant, will be possible.
Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Hilary is also expected to impact California and the Southwest starting Friday and lasting through early next week, with peak impacts expected on Sunday and Monday.
Southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego, could see several inches of rain through Wednesday. Amounts totaling 3-5 inches are forecast for portions of southeastern California and portions of southern Nevada. Locally higher amounts between 5-8 inches are also possible.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain are possible in portions of western Arizona.