On the heels of Hurricane Dora and Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific, the FOX Forecast Center is tracking three additional disturbances that have a chance of becoming the next cyclone.
One of the disturbances is headed towards the central Pacific, while the other two are several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico.
The next system that has sustained winds of at least 39 mph in the Eastern Pacific will earn the name of Fernanda.
During an El Niño event, the Pacific Ocean is considered to be a hotbed for activity, so the increased rate of formation is not considered to be abnormal, especially with plenty of warm water.
CATASTROPHIC HAWAII FIRES KILL AT LEAST 55 AS SEARCH, RESCUE EFFORTS CONTINUE FOR MISSING
The National Hurricane Center has given Invest 98E in the Eastern Pacific the highest chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next week.
“Invest” is simply a naming convention used to identify disturbances that are being closely watched for possible development.
According to the NHC, an area of low pressure has already formed, and the addition of organized showers and thunderstorm activity would lead to the development of a tropical depression.
Forecast models show the system will move in a westward or northwestward heading and stay safely off the coast of Mexico over the next week.
A tropical disturbance about 1,700 miles away from Hawaii has been given a medium chance of development over the next week.
On its current trajectory, the tropical entity will stay south of the islands, but the FOX Forecast Center will keep a close eye on the system since recovery efforts are still underway after dozens of people were killed in wind-driven wildfires.
Forecast models do not show the system becoming a strong cyclone, and it is expected to weaken once it reaches cooler water in the Central Pacific.
If the disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm, the exact region it’s in will dictate which naming list is used to identify the cyclone.
A cyclone that forms between 140 and 180 degrees west longitude would be located in the Central Pacific and earn the name Akoni.
An area of low pressure that is expected to form over the next week in the Eastern Pacific has a high chance of developing into a cyclone and, due to its proximity to land, could have the most impacts.
Forecast models show a tropical depression forming during the next week off Mexico and paralleling the coastline.
Due to its expected close formation to the coast, heightened seas and occasional squally weather are nearly guaranteed for some Mexican communities.
Any deviation of the system’s future movement to the right of the forecast would lead to additional impacts on the Mexican coastline.
Forecasters urged visitors and residents south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, to pay close attention to the developing cyclone.
After a busy start to the season, with five cyclones, including a hurricane, there have been no storms to track in the Atlantic basin, and the trend could continue for at least another week.
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking both Saharan dust and upper-level winds, which are making the basin hostile for development.
NOAA expects warm water temperatures to contribute to above activity and recently released an updated seasonal forecast which called for 14-21 named storms and 6-11 hurricanes.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE TROPICS AS HURRICANE SEASON ENTERS AUGUST
August is widely considered by forecasters to be the month when the proverbial “flip of the switch” happens, meaning when hostile conditions tend to relax allowing for more tropical cyclones.
To mark the occasion, hurricane experts at Colorado State University ring a bell every Aug. 20 to signify the arrival of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Some years are more active than others, but it doesn’t get any more quiet than last year’s August.
No tropical storms or hurricanes formed, marking it only the second August in the modern satellite era that did not see a named cyclone.