Tropical Depression Six-E in the Eastern Pacific strengthened into Tropical Storm Eugene on Saturday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Eugene is expected to maintain tropical-storm intensity through early Tuesday before weakening. Some forecast models show the storm taking a right turn late next week, which would put what’s left of the system heading for the Baja California Peninsula or possibly far Southern California.
Here’s the latest information about Tropical Storm Eugene.
The NHC reported that Tropical Storm Eugene is located 290 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and is moving northwest at 15 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
The forecast calls for Eugene to remain a tropical storm through at least early Tuesday before weakening to a tropical depression by Tuesday evening. The official forecast shows the system taking a slight northeast turn by Wednesday evening.
Spaghetti plots, which show how various weather computer models forecast the track of the system, show what’s left of Tropical Storm Eugene to move toward the northern California Baja Peninsula or perhaps even far Southern California.
There are no tropical weather alerts in effect for Tropical Storm Eugene. Rain, wind and rough seas are expected along Mexico’s Pacific coast. Rip currents will be very likely in that area.
It’s too early to provide specifics on the impacts of the storm if a turn toward the northeast were to happen late next week. However, most forecasters in the region aren’t expecting much from it.
While it is possible part of the system’s moisture plume makes it into the Desert Southwest, National Weather Service meteorologists are not anticipating any significant impacts from the cyclone.
Cities from Nevada through Southern California and into Arizona and New Mexico are in desperate need of precipitation following a delayed start to the monsoon season.
According to the NWS office in Tempe, Arizona, Phoenix is in the midst of one of the most prolonged periods on record without rainfall, and there is no precipitation in sight.
The city’s official observation site at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport has reached 134 days without precipitation, and the NWS believes they are on track to reach the second-longest dry spell on record at 143 days.
“The ridge of high pressure is not situated in an optimal position to receive deep tropical moisture from a disturbance over the eastern Pacific,” NWS meteorologists said. “If there is a shower or two, it will be because of the orographic lift over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Valleys across South and Central Arizona won’t see a drop.”
Southern California is in much the same boat, and meteorologists warn if there are any impacts, it could be from increased swells.
The situation is the opposite of when Tropical Storm Kay produced showers and gusty winds across the Southwest in 2022.
During the rare event, southwesterly winds and warm water temperatures helped to funnel tropical moisture over parts of the U.S. – a situation that appears not to be in the cards this go-around.
NWS meteorologists are optimistic that an active El Niño pattern will lead to more chances of tropical moisture in the Southwest during the fall.