The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has started on an unusually quiet note, as we’re now six weeks into the season and not a single storm has formed. But that’s likely to change this week, with the potential for two storms to develop off the coast of Mexico.
May 15 marks the beginning of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, and in an average year, the first named storm forms around June 10 while the second named storm develops around June 24. We’re now past both of those dates and still awaiting the season’s first named storm.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist and world-renowned tropical weather expert at Colorado State University, there has only been one Eastern Pacific hurricane season since 1970 in which the first named storm didn’t form until after June 26. That occurred in 2016, when Agatha didn’t form until July 2.
And while there is the possibility of two named storms developing this week, it will likely take until after June 26 for either one to form, so 2023 has a good chance of joining 2016 as one of the two years since 1970 to have such a slow start to the season.
As of Sunday, Eastern Pacific Disturbance No. 1 is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This disturbance has not become any better organized since Saturday, but environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week as the disturbances move west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
The NHC places the odds of development at 20% over the next two days and 80% over the next seven days. If it develops into a tropical storm, it will earn the name Adrian.
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While the second disturbance has not yet developed, an area of low pressure is forecast to form early this week several hundred miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala and southern Mexico.
Some gradual development of this potential disturbance is possible thereafter, and the NHC said a tropical depression could form during the second half of this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
According to the NHC, it has a near 0% chance of development over the next two days but a 50-50 chance over the next seven days. If it organizes enough to become a tropical storm, this system will earn the name Beatriz.