The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the formation of a storm system that has the potential to produce the largest organized round of severe storms in about a week across the southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area that stretches from Central Texas to Mississippi for the chance that storms could produce hail and damaging winds on Saturday.
Dallas, Norman, Oklahoma, and Shreveport, Louisiana, are all included in the threat zone, that is a level 2 out of 5 on the agency’s severe thunderstorm risk category scale.
“We haven’t seen much activity in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, but we will see that going into the weekend,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Marissa Torres.
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The FOX Forecast Center believes storms will fire during the afternoon and evening and cannot rule out a tornado or two.
“The storms that are quite strong, if not severe, could bring quite a bit of lightning, heavy rain, the winds and the hail. Those are the things we’re most concerned about, and it’ll settle down into the overnight,” said Torres.
The threat for storms could buck a trend of below-average severe activity that has been observed for several weeks.
Nearly a dozen states east of the Rockies had no reports of severe weather during May, which was the quietest since at least 2004.
The potential for a less active severe weather season was expected by the FOX Forecast Center, with the exiting out of La Niña and a march toward El Niño.
Research completed by various private, government and educational groups has found that neutral-ENSO conditions tend to produce tornado and hail events that are more in line with average or slightly below-average historical tallies, and El Niños can be even quieter.
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The threat for severe storms on Sunday appears to be marginal as the energy associated with the storm system will quickly move through the region.
The fast-moving nature of the system means a reduced threat of flash flooding, which usually requires storm training over the same area for a long duration.