After a stormy week that saw up to 10 inches of rain in some parts of Florida, the Sunshine State got a little break in the action with only a handful of scattered thunderstorms over the past few days.
But all that is about to change as a new disturbance full of tropical moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.
Most of the state will stay in the 80s through Friday, and while there is a risk of turbulent weather in the northern part of the state, the central and southern areas of Florida will be at an even higher risk of seeing gloomy weather.
Tampa and Miami, for example, have forecasts of rain and thunderstorms through the rest of the workweek and lasting into the weekend.
The reason for the stormy weather, according to the FOX Forecast Center, is a slow-moving upper-level disturbance traversing the Gulf of Mexico that will park over Florida by mid-week.
The FOX Forecast Center says the low-pressure system is expected to form over the Gulf of Mexico and will slowly shift to the east over South Florida and then move into the Atlantic Ocean.
Should it linger over the warm waters long enough, it could acquire tropical characteristics, which would make it potentially a subtropical or tropical storm, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
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“A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico must always be monitored for possible tropical development this time of year,” said FOX Weather senior digital content producer Brian Donegan. “While the odds of a tropical depression or storm forming are very low, this system is still expected to provide a surge of tropical moisture to Florida late this week and into the weekend, regardless of development.”
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With the threat of widespread thunderstorms and torrential rain also comes the risk of widespread flash flooding.
As the action gets going on Thursday, the threat of flash flooding in Florida will stretch from areas just north of Orlando through cities like Tampa, Melbourne, West Palm Beach, Naples and Miami.
That risk will run through at least Friday morning, meaning it won’t be ideal beach weather as we prepare for the weekend.
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The highest rainfall amounts are expected to fall across southern portions of Florida from about the Tampa area south through Fort Pierce, West Palm Beach and Miami.
Orlando and Central Florida could pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain through Saturday. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain, with some locally higher amounts, could fall from the Tampa area to the state’s east coast, while areas from West Palm Peach south could see 3-5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts through Saturday.
Recent rain in Florida has helped to reduce some of the drought conditions in the state, but most of the rain has been centered across southwestern areas, while areas on the Sunshine State’s west coast are still extremely dry.
“I mean, look at Tampa, Sarasota, the St. Petersburg area,” FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer said, noting the extensive drought in the region. “You are on a Category 4 out of 5 (drought). And whenever we talk about a Category 4 out of 5 here, I mean, we’re talking about some of the worst here.”
Frazer said Tampa needs about 2-3 inches of additional rain to ease a lot of the drought conditions in that area.