NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar – A severe cyclone with winds equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane is expected to make landfall on Sunday with potentially devastating consequences for Myanmar and Bangladesh.
Cyclone Mocha developed in the Bay of Bengal in early May and has slowly moved northeastward toward the coastline.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, maximum sustained winds were about 150 mph Saturday, making the cyclone one of the top-ten strongest ever in the basin.
Government agencies report thousands of residents have been evacuated, but there are significant concerns about flooding and poor shelters.
“This is the first cyclone to threaten Myanmar this Monsoon season and there are grave concerns about the impact especially on the already vulnerable and displaced communities with reduced coping capacity,” the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs posted in a recent storm update. “Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine. Many of the IDP camps and sites in Rakhine are located in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to storm surge. The suffering of more than a million displaced people and other communities in the Northwest is also expected to worsen over the coming days as the ex-cyclone moves inland bringing heavy rain.”
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According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, it has issued the highest alert level for coastal regions.
Forecast models show at least half a foot of rainfall in many communities during the next five days.
The expected rainfall does not take into account the storm surge, which could inundate low-lying coastal communities.
A storm surge is produced when winds from a tropical cyclone pile up water. The more powerful the winds are, the higher the storm surge is likely to be. A Category 1 hurricane typically produces a storm surge of 4-5 feet, while a Category 5 storm can lead to a surge of at least 18 feet.
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The World Bank Group lists Myanmar and Bangladesh as being highly susceptible to weather disasters because of the terrain and poverty rates.
Cyclones are not rare along the Bay of Bengal, and both countries have been subject to some of the deadliest weather disasters on Earth.
In 1970, a tropical cyclone impacted several South Asia counties, including Bangladesh. More than 300,000 were killed, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
In 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 as flooding and a significant storm surge destroyed low-lying communities.
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Unlike the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basin, the North Indian Ocean cyclone season does not have a designated start or end date. Tropical cyclones are known to form year-round but are most common from May through November.
The eastern Pacific’s hurricane season begins May 15, and the tropical weather season in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, starts June 1.