A developing low-pressure system that is expected to form over or near the Gulf of Mexico will likely keep the weather pattern rather unsettled through the upcoming week, and there is the possibility of tropical development in the process.
The FOX Forecast Center expects a stationary front to linger over the region, which will help increase the chances of precipitation, but if a low-pressure system is able to break away from the influences of land and upper-level winds, slow tropical or subtropical development could occur.
Rainfall has already begun along the Gulf Coast, but every day an additional round of precipitation could lead to an increased flooding risk.
“We’re working off the Gulf of Mexico, so there’s plenty of moisture funneling in here, especially for the state of Georgia, as well, where the Masters now are underway,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Brigit Mahoney.
Flood Watches are already in place for millions of residents along the Gulf Coast, but gusty winds, beach erosion and increased risk of rip currents will be possible.
Forecast models show 3-5 inches of rain could fall over Texas, with many other communities in Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia seeing 2-3 inches of precipitation.
In the longer term, forecast models show a low-pressure system that will linger over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which can be suspect any time of the year, but especially during the tropical weather season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 until November 30, but out-of-season activity is always possible.
The FOX Forecast Center said it will be closely monitoring the system in case it slowly develops tropical or subtropical characteristics.
Regardless of development, flooding from heavy rains and gusty winds will be likely along the Interstate 10 corridor.
In addition to the precipitation, seas are expected to be rough, which could increase beach erosion and increase the risk of rip currents.
Whenever the first tropical cyclone forms of the year, it will be named Arlene.