Storms organizing Friday morning will eventually lead to a widespread severe weather outbreak with strong tornadoes, destructive winds and large hail all expected Friday in the Midwest and South as March gives up any semblance of heading out like a lamb.
Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley and mid-South and eastward into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center estimates about 75 million people have the potential for severe weather Friday, including the major metro areas of Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis and Nashville. According to the FOX Forecast Center, some twisters could be long-track, EF-2 or stronger tornadoes.
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The complex system is creating a dual threat zone, shaded in magenta on the map below, with two areas of greatest risk for damaging severe weather amid a storm system that overall threatens at least some, if not all of 20 states with dangerous weather conditions Friday.
One area of heightened concern covers eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, southwestern Wisconsin and far northeastern Missouri, which is close to where a deepening area of low pressure will sweep across the region. That includes Des Moines and Cedar Rapids in Iowa and Peoria, Illinois.
This atmospheric setup will produce supercells across this region capable of intense wind gusts, large hail, and a few stronger tornadoes — perhaps rating EF-2 or stronger.
“The Storm Prediction Center in their (Friday) morning update specifically mentioned Missouri, Iowa and Illinois for the potential for long track tornadoes,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “Those are very dangerous storms that can stay on the ground for over an hour. So to have that double component of strong straight line winds and a tornadic ability — that’s some scary stuff.”
But as the day progresses here, the storm system is expected to evolve into a dangerous line of severe thunderstorms creating significant threats of damaging wind gusts that reach or exceed 75 mph.
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“That wind threat, by the way, that’s the major concern up north across the Midwest for places like Iowa and Illinois,” Merwin said. “That’s a spot that is known for strong straight-line wind damage as we head into spring.”
To the south finds another area of heightened threats for extremely dangerous severe weather that spans across Southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, and western portions of both Tennessee and Kentucky, including Memphis and Little Rock, Arkansas.
“Little Rock, Jonesboro, Jackson (Tennessee) – you are all in the thick of this,” said FOX Weather. “Unfortunately, these are areas that have been very hard hit. This does include the same areas touched by that deadly tornado outbreak a week ago (from Friday).”
Plenty of warm, humid air is in place providing a tremendous amount of available atmospheric energy to fuel developing storms, while low-level wind shear will likely support supercell thunderstorms beginning early Friday afternoon, continuing through the evening ahead of the advancing cold front.
This dangerous setup is conducive strong, potentially long-track tornadoes that could reach EF-2 or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. In addition, large golf ball-size hail, and strong damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph are all possible within these storms.
“When you have all the ingredients in place, it is going to pop; it’s just a matter of how bad it gets and who is going to be hardest hit,” Merwin said.
Some of the same locations in the South that were impacted by the deadly tornado outbreak barely a week ago will, unfortunately, face the risk of severe weather once again on Friday.
“When you look close enough, I mean, you can basically see that it is going to be impacting, unfortunately, some of the same areas that we saw this time last week on Friday,” FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer said. “I mean, including those of you in Rolling Fork, Mississippi, as well as those of you in Winona.”
Even if these areas were to avoid the worst of the severe weather, any thunderstorms would still get in the way of ongoing recovery efforts.