After weeks of enduring relentless heavy rain and incredible mountain snow, Californians are likely wondering when the parade of storms and atmospheric rivers finally comes to an end.
The answer is: Not this week.
Just as one powerful atmospheric river exits, a second one arrives later Monday, renewing the flash flooding threat for much of the state. The tropically-infused system is also creating dangerous conditions in mountain communities where heavy rain is once again set to fall on feet of snow left over from a historic winter storm late last month, triggering worries of “roofalanches.”
Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will keep melting snow, adding flooding pressure to the region’s creeks and streams.
At higher elevations in the Sierra, it’s another forecast calling for multiple feet of snow where some places still have as much as 18 feet on the ground.
And to add to the stormy woes, widespread strong, gusty winds are likely across much of the state as a powerful low-pressure system eventually makes landfall Tuesday morning.
Heavy, steady rain arrives in Northern California Monday afternoon while scattered showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times, continue to dot the inland California valleys.
Rain will increase in intensity and coverage Monday night, spreading into the Bay Area, Central Valleys and as far south as Santa Barbara in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday.
By the time the sun comes up Tuesday, heavy rain will be falling across much of the state, with snow once again piling up in the high Sierra. Heavy rain will eventually spread south into the Los Angeles and San Diego areas later Tuesday and last into Wednesday.
“Tuesday morning is when I think we’ll see the heaviest of that rain, just bull’s-eye parts of Redding, California, toward Napa Valley and then work its way down the coast from Sacramento through San Francisco,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime said.
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Another 1 t 2 inches of rain is expected in the Bay Area and Los Angeles metro areas, while 3 to 6 inches is likely along much of the coast, and isolated rainfall totals reaching 7 inches or more are possible in the Sierra foothills below the snow level and in the Southern California mountains.
Flood Watches cover much of the same swath of the state that was under a similar watch for Friday’s atmospheric river.
Once again, Californians will be dealing with flooded creeks and roads, some flash flooding dangers and widespread mudslides and rockslides.
Before the event begins, around a dozen major river gauges were either near flood stage or above. At least 34 counties in California are still under a State of Emergency.
Winds will begin to gust above 40 to 55 mph across Northern and Central California, including the San Francisco Bay Area, with higher gusts above 1,000 feet.
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High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Bay Area, with widespread High Wind Watches and Wind Advisories elsewhere.
Scattered power outages are likely as trees and power lines succumb to the high winds while tenuously anchored in the already-saturated grounds.
Up in the Sierra, wind gusts will top 100 mph along its ridgetops as has been surprisingly common with these storms. Palisades Tahoe ski resort clocked a gust of 139 mph with last week’s storm. Those hurricane-force wind gusts will combine with heavy snow to create whiteout conditions along the mountain peaks.
Mountain communities that received historic amounts of heavy snow last month and have dealt with challenges of buried roads and buildings are now facing the daunting forecast of additional heavy rain, adding overwhelming weight to roofs already struggling to hold too much snow.
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The National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada, is warning mountain residents of “roofalanches” when mounds of heavy, wet snow slides off a roof.
“Snow loading concerns on structures will likely increase with the added heavy rain and snow, especially on Tuesday,” NWS forecasters in Reno wrote in their Monday morning forecast discussion. “There will also be a higher risk of ‘roofalanches’ in these areas.”
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Already with the previous storms earlier this month, an 80-year-old woman was killed on March 1 when a “roofalanche” crashed into her porch and crushed her while she was clearing it.
Other slides have triggered fires in the snow after severing natural gas and propane lines leading into homes, while some buildings are in danger of roofs simply collapsing.
The heaviest rain will begin to taper off Tuesday night, except in Southern California, where steady, heavy rain will continue to fall through the night.
Wednesday will still feature lingering showers with lower snow levels, leading to additional snow showers in the Sierra.
Southern California will remain rather wet until Wednesday evening as the last tail of the atmospheric river drags through.
By then, San Francisco will have cemented finishing the Oct. 1-March 15 period with more rain than typically soggy Seattle for just the seventh time since 1946. And depending on how much rain falls over the next two days, downtown Los Angeles – just 0.70 inches behind Seattle through Sunday – could pass the Emerald City too.
A brief break in the weather pattern will allow California to wring out later in the week.
In fact, the National Weather Service in Sacramento went through extra measures to highlight this unusual forecast for Thursday and Friday:
However, don’t get too used to the break as long-range forecasts again have rain in the offing for the weekend, though early projections do not suggest as much precipitation as the approaching storm.