The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the movement of frontal boundaries that will help trigger showers and thunderstorms over the weekend for a region that does not need any more rain.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area from central Oklahoma through much of Arkansas for seeing the threat of strong to severe storms on Saturday, with the risk moving eastward and southeastward on Sunday.
The potential for hail appears to be the highest threat from the storms, but forecasters warn it will not take too much more rainfall to trigger additional flash flooding in the region.
More than a dozen water gauges along major rivers, creeks and streams in Arkansas are either near flood stage or above, and many communities are well above normal for rainfall in 2023.
According to observations from the National Weather Service, Fayetteville is running more than 4 inches above normal, while Little Rock is running at least 10 inches above normal for precipitation.
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The FOX Forecast Center expects showers and storms to develop Saturday afternoon, and where enough instability exists, they could become strong to severe.
Hail and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threats from the storms.
Communities such as Little Rock, Fort Smith and Conway in Arkansas are in the increased threat area for storms.
Heavy precipitation ahead of the storms is expected to limit cell development and prevent a large outbreak of severe weather.
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As the frontal boundary pushes eastward, so will the threat of heavy rain, hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado.
Communities in Sunday’s threat zone include Greenville and Jackson in Mississippi.
“Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards and the greatest threats out of these powerful storms, but if we get enough rotation within these supercells, we could likely see a few tornadoes,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Jane Minar.
The cold front will be near the East Coast on Monday, but due to stable air, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.