OKLAHOMA CITY, Okla. – Oklahoma could see its first February tornado in 12 years as a severe weather threat eyes the Plains on Sunday.
Supercell thunderstorms, with the potential for large hail and tornadoes, appear increasingly likely across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening, the FOX Forecast Center said.
“Looking at this weekend, we have a big storm that is going to be blasting across the country,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “We do have early indications that severe weather is going to be a large component, larger than what we have seen with the last several storms that have crossed the country.”
A strong low-pressure system will sweep east across the Plains on Sunday. As it does so, southerly winds will transport a warm, humid air mass northward into the region. Combined with plenty of wind shear – the change in wind speed and/or direction with height – this setup will strongly favor the development of supercells with threats of large hail and tornadoes.
The storms will eventually congeal into a linear line capable of producing damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. This line of storms is expected to move east Sunday night and could impact locations like Dallas-Fort Worth, Tulsa in Oklahoma and Kansas City in Missouri.
“Any time that we see an outlook like this from the Storm Prediction Center days ahead, it’s one to make you pause and take notice,” Merwin said.
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“What we have been seeing, which is not abnormal, is our kind of second Tornado Alley in the winter. We usually do see tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama,” Merwin said. “The change with this year it’s just how many we’ve seen. It’s just been so active.”
This is the second week in a row, Merwin said, that we’ve seen severe weather shift a little bit farther into kind of the traditional Tornado Alley, which is ahead of schedule. We typically would see that shift closer to April.
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If a tornado were to strike Oklahoma, it would be a rare occurrence, with only 51 February tornadoes reported in the Sooner State since 1950. The last February tornado in Oklahoma was an EF-0 twister on Feb. 27, 2011.