DALLAS – A stubborn battle between a massive arctic air mass that has settled into the Northern Plains and the ever-present warming effects of the Gulf of Mexico are going to spend days duking it out across the Southern Plains and mid-South this week, creating a multiple-day threat for disruptive freezing rain and other wintry-weather threats.
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for parts of Northern Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Waco and Wichita Falls. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Oklahoma City area.
Precipitation will get going Monday morning, with a light drizzle possible along the Interstate 35 corridor from Oklahoma City to Dallas. With temperatures below freezing, this would likely fall as freezing drizzle, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
At the same time, precipitation will develop in West Texas, but the forecast remains challenging. With the arctic frontal boundary draped across the region, where the boundary of freezing air sits during this time is critical. Areas well south of the front will stay warm enough for just a cold rain, but it’s likely freezing rain just to the north of this line. This fast moving band of precipitation will shift east to the I-35 corridor by midday, and move east out of Texas by the evening. Up to 0.10″ of ice accretion will be possible with this first wave.
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A second, more impactful wave of precipitation will begin Tuesday morning, with again a large area of precipitation to break out in West Texas. Continued push of colder air in wake of the arctic front will allow the freezing line to inch a bit further south, well past the I-20 corridor.
The FOX Forecast Center believes this area is where impacts could be the greatest, as potentially up to 0.50″ of ice accretion possible along a line from Abilene, Texas eastward into Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma. The exact location of the freezing line, which will likely wobble north and south throughout the day Tuesday, will be key in determining where the greatest impacts occur.
Right now, it appears the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex will be right on the edge of that line, with upwards of 0.25 inches of ice accretion possible. Should the freezing line move further south, these numbers could rise. Forecast models also disagree on the amount of precipitation that occurs, and this is leading to higher than usual forecast uncertainty.
From Tuesday into Wednesday, the FOX Forecast center expects continued precipitation to fall across most of Texas. While precipitation will begin to taper off in intensity, the presence of freezing drizzle will continue to complicate the forecast, as multiple hours of freezing drizzle Tuesday night into Wednesday could lead to a treacherous commute Wednesday morning.
Freezing rain will also be possible across parts of Arkansas and Western Tennessee, including Little Rock and Memphis. This will likely occur late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ice totals could reach upwards of 0.25 inches in this region, leading to power outages and dangerous travel.
During the day Wednesday, temperatures will begin to thaw out, thanks to an approaching weather system.
Temperatures will warm above freezing by Wednesday afternoon, ending the threat for additional ice accretion. But with temperatures dropping back below freezing overnight, refreezing will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, which could lead to multiple instances of black ice for the Thursday morning commute across most of Western and Northern Texas.
Overall, the forecast calls for upwards of 0.25-0.50 inches of ice to accrete starting along the I-20 corridor in West Texas, stretching east towards I-35, and eventually into parts of Southeastern Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas. A second area of ice upwards of 0.25 inches is also increasingly likely across parts of Arkansas and Western Tennessee.
Generally, ice accretions of less than 0.25 inches are considered to be a nuisance, but impacts start to become disruptive once amounts close in on half an inch or more.
At around 0.5 inches, power outages can become numerous, and driving is considered hazardous.
Dangerous travel is likely, especially during commute times, along with some power outages. This will likely be a memorable ice storm for some, and there is a possibility that some locations could reach the threshold of crippling ice in excess of 0.50″, should the cold air sink further south than forecast models suggest, or precipitation falls in greater amounts than forecast.
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The potential for disruptive weather has some states preparing for the mess in the week to come.
ERCOT, Texas’ electric power grid manager, said it is monitoring the threat of frozen precipitation for the Lone Star State but believes it will have enough electrical generation to meet the demands of its more than 26 million customers.
Forecast models show the threat of precipitation diminishing by the time the first weekend of February arrives.