An unsettled weather pattern across the Southern Plains and mid-South during the workweek has the potential to make travel dicey if all the ingredients align for precipitation to fall in the frozen variety as a series of disturbances move across the region.
Forecast models show off and on rain chances through Friday, and where the droplets overlap with enough cold air, frozen rain or even light snow will be possible.
The FOX Forecast Center said the best chances of seeing an occasional mix are for communities north of Interstate 40 and the Texas Panhandle. The threat of ice includes metro areas such as Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Little Rock, Memphis and Nashville.
“The forecast confidence is going to continue to increase as we get closer to the event. But we’re fine-tuning this forecast as the models are not quite in agreement yet on exactly who is going to see what and when,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Marissa Torres.
For many, ice accretions are expected to remain light through the event but if more cold air is present than forecast, impacts could quickly ramp up.
Generally, ice accretions of less than a ¼ of an inch are considered to be a nuisance, but impacts start to become disruptive once amounts close in on half an inch or more.
At around ½ of an inch, power outages can become numerous, and driving is considered hazardous.
The National Weather Service considers the threat of freezing rain to be more hazardous than snow because rain can quickly turn to ice along roadways and other surfaces when temperatures reach 32 degrees or below.
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The dynamics do not favor any type of widespread severe weather outbreak, but where temperatures are warm and moisture is plentiful, flooding will be a concern along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Georgia.
Forecast models show as much as five inches of rain through Friday for several communities, which could trigger flooding concerns if too much falls quicker than what streams can handle.
“New Orleans – you’ll be getting into that wet weather as well. So, it’ll be one of those things where if people are heading to the Big Easy, they’ll need to prepare for the rain,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Michael Estime.
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The potential for disruptive weather has some states preparing for the mess in the weeek to come.
ERCOT, Texas’ electric power grid manager, said it is monitoring the threat of frozen precipitation for the Lone Star State but believes it will have enough electrical generation to meet the demands of its more than 26 million customers.
Forecast models show the threat of precipitation diminishing by the time the first weekend of February arrives.