SAN FRANCISCO – California will catch a break Thursday from the onslaught of deadly atmospheric river storms that have greatly helped the ongoing drought situation but have battered the state with heavy rain, strong winds, flooding and mudslides.
Another barrage of storms will push into the region this weekend and into next week.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said Tuesday the storms claimed the lives of at least 17 people, which is more than wildfires over the past two years combined.
But the death toll climbed to at least 18 on Wednesday when a 43-year-old woman was found dead in her vehicle that became submerged in floodwaters north of San Francisco one day earlier, according to the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office.
The brief break between storms will be a good time for crews to be out across the state to try and clear debris from roads and storm drains. And while rain can be expected in parts of Northern California on Thursday, it won’t be anything near what the state has seen recently.
“Today, I wouldn’t really expect too many issues,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said Thursday. “It’s a good day for a lot of these water levels to drop, do some cleanup, try to get some of that sludge and also, the debris. You have to get the debris away from your drains because we do have more rain on the way.”
Flooding concerns remained when storm after storm brought more than a foot of rain to some areas, leading to more than 300 reports of flooding since the barrage of storms began in late December.
Rain on Wednesday pushed more water into the swollen rivers, and there are concerns that flooding will occur, especially along the Salinas River in Central California.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the forecast crest of the Salinas River as of Friday morning is expected to be 25.2 feet at Spreckels. At this time, minor flooding is expected.
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With most of California seeing mainly dry conditions on Thursday, the state is preparing for more wet weather starting Friday and into the weekend.
There will also be a dangerous situation unfolding along the coast, as large waves will pound the coastline as the next storm approaches the region.
The FOX Forecast Center says the highest waves, between 30-35 feet, will crash ashore along the Oregon coast. That will create hazardous conditions, with beaches becoming inundated as the water surges into ordinarily dry areas.
Significant beach erosion can be expected, and water may also damage some of the infrastructure.
In Northern California, waves between 20-25 feet can be expected, and 10-20 foot waves will roll into Southern California.
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There will be a renewed flood threat in California on Saturday as another atmospheric river sends tropical moisture toward the state. This storm will be more powerful than the one slamming into the state on Friday but will be quick-hitting.
Strong wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected to return to the region that will likely topple trees still standing in the saturated soil and trigger more power outages.
More scattered showers are expected on Sunday before another powerful storm pushes into California at the start of the workweek.
The latest drought numbers were released on Thursday morning, and the news is good for California.
“We now have seen a massive reduction in the extreme drought, right where we need it in the Central Valley where we have critical crops that are being grown,” Merwin said. “A lot of farmers, a lot of industry here that have been hit hard by the drought, so to see the short-term reduction, it is a major silver lining.”
About 95% of the state is still experiencing drought conditions, according to the latest information from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Last week, the state was sitting at 98%.
What’s even better is that nearly the entire state is now out of the extreme drought category, with less than 1% of the state experiencing extreme drought.
“It’s that reduction in extreme drought that is just purely amazing,” Merwin said. “If we rewind to before Christmas Eve, we had almost 40% of the state under exceptional and extreme drought, all of that was in the Central Valley.”
Rich Tinker, the U.S. Drought Monitor author with NOAA, said he was optimistic about the drought situation, but was cautious.
“The reservoirs, of course, is the big issue for most of what goes on in most of California, and water management is pretty heavy,” he said. “So, it takes a long time for reservoirs to deplete, and it also takes a while for them to refill. So, we’re doing considerably better. We’re still not even up to what’s normal for this time of year, however.”
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So, while Californians may be breathing a sigh of relief, some scientists say it may be too soon to celebrate.
“At this point in time, we still have another four or five months in our snow season and in our typical rainy season,” said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the Central Sierra Snow Lab. “That means that while we’re kind of scoring the touchdown in the first quarter of the game. Right now, we still have three-quarters left, and there’s a lot that can happen.”
So, how much precipitation is needed to continue to make dents in the drought?
“At this point in time, we realistically need about an extra winter’s worth of precipitation,” Schwartz said. “So it’s not going to happen in one year. At minimum, we’re probably looking at 3 to 4 of above-average before we can really talk about getting out of the drought.”