MAURICIO POCHETTINO knows his Chelsea future could rest on this month’s Carabao Cup Final against Liverpool – if he lasts that long.
But the Blues hierarchy might privately wonder if a Wembley win could end up causing the club MORE financial problems than defeat against Jurgen Klopp’s side.
GettyMauricio Pochettino is fighting to keep his Chelsea job[/caption]
Todd Boehly faces financial woes at ChelseaRex
Victory on February 25 would earn Pochettino his first piece of silverware in English football after his spate of near-misses at Spurs.
It would also ensure that the Blues would be back in Europe next season – but only in the Conference League.
And that is where the money men inside Stamford Bridge could well be starting to get more than slightly concerned.
Financial analysts including former Manchester City executive Stefan Borsson have already predicted that Chelsea will have to sell players in the six week gap between the end of the season and the close of the football financial year on June 30 to avoid breaching Premier League Profitability and Sustainability Rules.
Those regulations give clubs leeway to make “allowable losses” of £105m over three seasons.
The latest figures from accountants Deloitte estimated Chelsea’s annual wage bill at £350m, while their current “amortisation costs” of transfers is believed to be in the realm of £180m-plus heading into next year.
Chelsea are already likely to earn at least £17m less in Prem TV money than they had envisaged.
A top six place would be worth around £157m compared to the £140m if they remain in their current 11th position.
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Then you can factor in two years of missing out of at least £75m in Champions League revenue.
But more of a concern is that qualifying for Europe would mean Chelsea having to meet Uefa’s far MORE stringent financial rules – or face significant penalties.
Under Uefa rules, introduced this season, clubs competing in any competition next term will be restricted to spending a maximum 80 per cent of their revenues on wages and transfers.
Chelsea’s income is likely to fall to below £450m this season and next, with the Conference League worth no more than a maximum £15m if a team wins every game.
Assuming that £450m income figure, Chelsea will not be allowed to spend more than £360m – which, given their current wage-bill, leaves just £10m to play with.
In addition, Uefa’s FFP regulations, which will be a two year calculation next season, will only allow losses of £34m across 2023 and 2024, with calculation now done on a calendar year basis.
It makes the prospect of Chelsea embarking on another huge summer spending spree, whoever is the manager, far less likely.
Because the Blues regime amortised the transfer fees of the majority of their recruits over the past 18 months across up to eight seasons, they are carrying huge costs.
Those sums still hanging over each player must be taken off the profits for any sales – so Chelsea would, for example, have to agree a deal of £38m for Marc Cucarella, £50m for injury-prone Wesley Fofana or £39m for unwanted Romelu Lukaku to avoid LOSING money of the departures.
The “profit” point for both Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez is around £88m.
Prem rules are already forcing all clubs, including Chelsea, to rethink their approaches.
But, bizarre as it sounds, getting into the Conference League might become a major nightmare – and effectively scotch their hopes of a summer of statement signings.
